Archive for the Predictions Category

UFC 101(08/08/09) (Predictions)

Posted in Predictions with tags , , , , , , , , , , on August 3, 2009 by Maxwell Destree

BJ Penn                                            Kenny Florian^$

BJ Penn    vs    Kenny Florian

Penn: BU-230 (70%), SB-260 (72%)

            PO+150 (40%)

Florian: BU+180 (36%), SB+200 (33%)

                PO-150 (60%)

 

Anderson “The Spider” Silva^     vs     Forrest Griffin

Silva: BU-350 (78%), SB-350 (78%)

            PO-260 (72%)

Griffin: BU+250 (29%), SB+275 (27%)

              PO+260 (28%)

 

Amir Sadollah     vs     Johny Hendricks

Sadollah: BU-130 (56%), SB-115 (53%)

                  PO: Even

Hendricks: BU: Even (50%), SB-115 (53%)

                       PO: Even

 

Kendall “Da Spyder” Grove     vs     Ricardo “Big Dog” Almeida

Grove: BU+135 (43%), SB+120 (45%)

              PO-120 (54%)

Almeida: BU-165 (62%), SB-150 (60%)

                   PO+125 (46%)

 

Josh “The Dentist” Neer     vs     Kurt “Batman” Pellegrino^$

Neer: BU-220 (69%), SB-215 (68%)

            PO-160 (62%)

Pellegrino: BU+175 (36%), SB+175 (36%)

                       PO+160 (38%)

 

 Thales Leites     vs     Alessio “Legionarius” Sakara

Leites: BU-350 (78%), SB-325 (76%)

              PO-350 (78%)

Sakara: BU+250 (29%), SB+250 (29%)

                PO+350 (22%)

 

Shane “Sugar” Nelson     vs     Aaron Riley

Nelson: BU+130 (43%), SB+120 (45%)

                 PO-130 (56%)

Riley: BU-160 (62%), SB-150 (60%)

             PO+125 (44%)

 

Tamdan “The Barn Cat” McCrory*     vs     John “Doomsday” Howard

McCrory: BU-200 (67%), SB-185 (65%)

                    PO-200 (67%)

Howard: BU+160 (38%), SB+155 (39%)

                  PO+205 (33%)

 

Matt Riddle*     vs     Dan Cramer

Riddle: BU-165 (62%), SB-150 (60%)

               PO-140 (58%)

Cramer: BU+135 (43%), SB+120 (45%)

                 PO-140 (42%)

 

George Sotiropoulos^     vs     George Roop

Sotiropoulos: BU, SB

                             PO-350 (78%)

Roop: BU, SB

                    PO+350 (22%)

 

Jesse “The Ox” Lennox     vs     Danillo “Indio” Villefort

Lennox: BU+165 (38%), SB+150 (40%)

                  PO

Villefort: BU-210 (68%), SB-180 (64%)

                   PO

UFC 100 (7/11/09) (Predictions)

Posted in Predictions with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on July 6, 2009 by Maxwell Destree

Note: The odds listed are from www.betus.com (BU) and www.sportsbook.com (SB), and my own personal opinion of what they should be (PO)(I am just trying this out, don’t be surprised if they’re way off to start with).  Also, I will break down the line into percentages for everyone.  The percentage tells how often they would win the fight.  P.S. I know the percentages don’t always add to 100, that’s because that’s the sportsbooks take, it’s just the way they do it.

My picks will be highlighted in bold.

 

Brock Lesnar                                   Frank Mir^

Brock Lesnar 2    vs    Frank Mir 2

Lesnar: BU-240 (71%), SB-215 (68%)    (07/06/09)

                 PO+130 (43%)

Mir: BU+190 (34%), SB+175 (36%)     (07/06/09)

          PO-150 (60%)

 Ok Ladies and Gentleman the rematch everyone has been waiting for and everyone is speculating about.  There really is no way to predict this one with any level of certainty.  Lesnar is a FREAK and when in the ring reminds me of a Bull on Speed in a China shop.  However, Mir does have a win over him, although some consider it controversial.  For the physical tools that Lesnar has, Mir has the same tools for pure MMA know-how.

My pick is for Mir, I have already bet a friend that Mir is going to win, although I shouldn’t have because I could have gotten better odds from Las Vegas.  Mir was a big underdog, but the odds have been slowly creeping down and are becoming more reasonable.  I think that a bet on Mir isn’t that foolish, I think that at this point in his career he is primed for a big upset victory to re-cement his place in UFC history.

Mir has the full arsenal of MMA tools at his disposal, and that’s why I have to pick him.  Lesnar is still learning the sport, and at this level pure Freakish ability still will only get one so far.  Mir can submit Lesnar on the ground, and Mir has better more technical standup.

I will admit that Lesnar still obviously has a very real chance and ability to just bull-rush and pummel Mir into submission or unconsciousness.

Ultimately the fight will end with Mir knocking Lesnar out, yup, you read it right, no need to re-read it, Mir by Knockout.

 

Georges “Rush” St.Pierre^            Thiago “PitBull” Alves

Georges St.Pierre 2    vs     Thiago Alves 3

St.Pierre: BU-300 (75%), SB-285 (74%)     (07/06/09)

                     PO-300 (75%)

Alves: BU+220 (31%), SB+225 (31%)     (07/06/09)

              PO+220 (31%)

 St.Pierre is possibly the best MMA fighter in the world.  Alves is no joke either, but he still seems a little too raw for someone on St.Pierres level.  Alves will definitely be a contender and possibly a future champ later in life, but its just too early for him.

St.Pierre is a fighter in the prime of his life.  St.Pierre in my opinion is the most pure athlete in all of MMA and he has too much ability for anyone at this point including Alves.  I expect that Alves will give us a good fight, and may even get St.Pierre in trouble, but I expect St.Pierres experience in the Octagon will pull him through.

I think this fight will probably go all five rounds, and I expect St.Pierre to win via Unanimous Decision.  Alves won’t be able to take St.Pierre down, yet St.Pierre will probably take Alves down to score points.  I think that St.Pierre will also be able to control the standup as well.  Finally though, how can anyone bet against St.Pierre at this stage in his career?

 

John Fitch*     vs     Paulo Thiago

Fitch: BU-450 (82%), SB-365 (78%)     (07/06/09)

             PO-350 (78%)

Thiago: BU+325 (24%), SB+285 (26%)          (07/06/09)

                 PO+310 (24%)

Thiago is going to be a good fight for Fitch who has been on a role in the UFC (except for the loss to GSP).  Thiago has won his last two fights by TKO (the only two TKOs of his eleven wins).  Thiagos specialty seems to be on the mat with the submission game.  Fitch is no stranger to the mat though, he is an ex-wrestler for Purdue University, although it will be interesting to see if Thiago can get Fitch on his back.  Thiago definitely has a chance to submit Fitch, but probably won’t knock him out.  Fitch has only been knocked out once in his twenty plus fights. 

Fitch will win by decision, possibly by knockout in the second round too.  I don’t think it would be an early or late knockout though.  Fitch is just too seasoned for Thiago.

 

Dan “Hendo” Henderson     vs     Michael “The Count” Bisping^$

Henderson: BU-225 (69%), SB-225 (69%)      (07/06/09)   

                        PO+165 (38%)

Bisping: BU+175 (36%), SB+185 (35%)     (07/06/09)

                 PO-185 (65%)

 Michael Bisping is complaining about the lack of respect that hes gotten from both fans and the media lately, and quite frankly I would have to agree with him.  Henderson was a great fighter, notice that I said was.  Henderson is still a very good fighter, but I think Father Time has caught up with him and he is no longer considered great, at least not in my book.

Bisping on the other hand is at a point where he is more athletic and quicker than Henderson.  Could the best ever Michael Bisping beat the best ever Dan Henderson?  Probably not, in fact most likely not, but can the Michael Bisping of today beat the Dan Henderson of today?  I think probably. 

I saw Hendersons last fight against Rich Franklin, and I was not impressed.  Both fighters looked slow and tentative.  Also, as I said earlier, Henderson is getting old.  I know that Randy Couture is old, but he is also fighting in a division where speed isn’t as much of a factor.  For a Middleweight its a combination of speed and power.  Henderson seems to have lost his speed, but still retains his power, supposedly even though we haven’t seen it in a while.

Bisping on the other hand looks very fast at Middleweight, but could admittedly probably use some more power.  I think that Bisping will be able to stuff most of Hendersons shots and keep the fight standing where he has an advantage.

I think Bisping wins this either by a late third round knockout, or decision.  I know Henderson has never been knocked out, but after taking two and a half rounds of punches he might give way.  Also, I think Henderson some times suffers from what many wrestlers appear to suffer from, and that’s trying to strike with a striker when they should be taking the striker down.

Bisping to win and take on Anderson Silva in England for the Middleweight belt where he will get his arse kicked.

 

Yoshihiro Akiyama*     vs     Alan “The Talent” Belcher

Akiyama: BU-300 (75%), SB-340 (77%)     (07/06/09)

                      PO-150 (60%)

Belcher: BU+220 (31%), SB+260 (28%)     (07/06/09)

                  PO+150 (40%)

This is Akiyamas first fight in the UFC, and he will be facing an opponent who has had eight fights in the UFC.  Akiyama has come to the UFC from Japan with much fanfare and is obviously the favorite for this fight.  I am personally not familiar with any of Akiyamas previous opponents but he has had quite a run of ending his fights in the first round.

Belcher is 5-3 in the Octagon with wins over Jorge Santiago, Kalib Starnes and Ed Herman.  His three losses are to Jason Day, Kendall Grove and Yushin Okami, with the exception of Day, not a bad couple of guys to lose to.  Belcher is still a very real threat to Akiyama although I just don’t think Belcher will have the mat skills to ward of Akiyama for too long.

I see Akiyama winning by either a late submission or by decision, possibly split, but most likely unanimous.

 

Mark “The Hammer” Coleman   vs   Stephan ” American Psycho” Bonnar^

Coleman: BU+250 (29%), SB+250 (29%)     (07/06/09)

                     PO+560 (18%)

Bonnar: BU-350 (78%), SB-325 (76%)     (07/06/09)

                  PO-550 (85%)

 I will keep this one quick, Coleman is too old.

Bonnar by knockout in the second round.

 

Jon “Bones” Jones*     vs     Jake “Irish” O’Brien

Jones: BU-450 (82%), SB-500 (83%)     (07/06/09)

              PO-410 (80%)

O’Brien: BU+325 (24%), SB+300 (25%)     (07/06/09)

                PO+325 (24%)

 Jones is a very athletic fighter, and very unorthodox.  Jones has had two fights in the UFC both wins by unanimous decisions.  The UFC is expecting big things from Jones who is only 21 years old and full of potential.  Jones is the clear favorite to win this fight.

O’Brien is no stranger to the Octagon in his own right.  He has had mixed results, but has faced decent competition.  Unfortunately for O’Brien I think the athleticism of Jones will be too much. 

I am going out on a limb here but I really think Jones is going to get an early victory, by knockout.

 

Dong “Stun Gun” Hyun Kim*     vs     TJ Grant

Hyun Kim: BU, SB

                       PO-300 (75%)

Grant: BU, SB

              PO+220 (31%)

 Dong Hyun Kim has had more fights in the UFC against better competition, and he has done pretty good.  I know that Kim is the favorite for this fight.  Grant has had one fight in the UFC and that was a controversial split decision win over Ryo Chonan.  Personally I never thought too much of Chonan, so I don’t give Grants victory over him much credit. 

Kim by submission in the first round.

 

Mac Danzig     vs     Jim Miller*

Danzig: BU+160 (38%), SB+160 (38%)     (07/06/09)

               PO+160 (38%)

Miller: BU-200 (67%), SB-200 (67%)     (07/06/09)

               PO-200 (67%)

 Well, one thing is for sure and that’s that Danzig is in desperate need of a win.  Danzig has had five fights in the UFC with a record of 2-3.  The one thing that Danzig has going for him is that he has fought some pretty good fighters.  He has losses to Josh Neer, Clay Guida, and Kurt Pellegrino and holds wins over Mark Bocek and Tommy Speer. 

Miller has yet to fight that level of competition.  Miller is 2-1 in the Octagon with wins over David Baron and Matt Wiman.  Miller lost his last fight which was against a very tough Gray Maynard.  Miller managed to go 3 grueling rounds with Maynard but lost by unanimous decision. 

Although Danzig has more experience, I don’t think he has the mentality or physical ability to improve much in the UFC.  Miller is still somewhat unproven although a win over Matt Wiman is a good start to proving ones self.  I just feel like Danzig is on his way out of the UFC while Miller is still developing as a fighter and a potential threat in the Lightweight division.

Miller by Unanimous Decision after three rounds of some very impressive grappling.

 

CB “The Doberman” Dollaway^     vs     Tom “Filthy” Lawlor

Dolloway: BU, SB

                     PO-120 (55%)

Lawlor: BU, SB

                PO+110 (48%)

 Both fighters are veterans from the Ultimate Fighter Tv Show, so I have seen both fighters fight.  Lawlor is good, probably better than most people give him credit for, but Dollaway although arrogant is the better fighter.  Dolloway despite losing in the finale of the show has gotten better over time, and truly seems to have what it takes to be a top tier MMA fighter. 

I don’t know exactly how the fight will go down, but I expect some good ground and pound from Dolloway and probably a unanimous or maybe split decision win for the Doberman.

 

Matt “The Real One” Grice     vs     Sannon Gugerty*

Grice: BU, SB

              PO+160 (38%)

Gugerty: BU, SB

                 PO-180 (64%)

Grice has had a rough go of it in the UFC, he has a 1-2 record.  His win comes by split-decision against Jason Black while his two losses are to Matt Veach and Terry Etim.  Etim is definitely a good fighter in the UFC and no slouch to have a loss to.  However, one would have to believe that with a Lightweight division as competitive as it is that Grice can’t afford any more losses.  Unfortunately his opponent is probably in the same boat. 

Gugerty has had two fights in the UFC with one win and one loss.  He beat Dale Hartt, but lost a tough fight with Spencer Fisher that went deep into the third round.  Being able to go deep into the third round with Spencer Fisher gets more respect in my book than two first round losses and a split decision win.

I think Gugerty takes this one in the second round by submission.

WEC: Brown vs Faber (6/7/09) (Predictions)

Posted in Predictions with tags , , , , , , on June 4, 2009 by Maxwell Destree

Just a quick note, I don’t follow the WEC as much as the UFC,therefore I am going to keep my prediction record seperate.  I still try to follow the WEC though, and sinc this is just for fun I should give it a shot anyways eh?  Here are my predictions.

Mike Brown                                      Urijah “California Kid” Faber

Mike Brown 2    vs    Urijah Faber 2  

Brown: BU-105 (51%), SB+120 (45%)     (06/04/09)

Faber: BU-135 ( 57%), SB-150 (60%)     (06/04/09)

Personally, I think Brown wins this fight more than he loses it.  I am surprised to see Brown as the underdog even though he has already beaten Faber.  Brown knocked Faber out in the first round the first time these two fighters met.  I think most people think Faber got too cute and just got caught.  Yes, Faber had success staying on the outside of Brown, and he was quicker too.  But, during their first fight Brown also showed he is quick enough to close the gap on Faber and even take Faber down. 

A close proximity, scrappy match favors Brown in my opinion.  I believe in order for Faber to win he needs to stay on the outside, out of Browns reach, and use his speed to connect on his strikes.  I really believe that Brown will have a repeat win, knocking Faber out.  Although this time perhaps in the early second round.  I think Faber will keep away initially, but his excitement will get the better of him once again, and once again he will get caught.

 

Jose “Junior” Aldo     vs     Cub Swanson

Aldo: SB-360 (78%)     (06/04/09)

Swanson: SB+280 (26%)     (06/04/09)

 

Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone     vs     James Krause

Cerrone: SB-650 (87%)     (06/04/09)

Krause: SB+450 (22%)     (06/04/09)

 

Josh “The Fluke” Grispi     vs     Jens “Lil’ Evil” Pulver

Grispi: SB-150 (60%)     (06/04/09)

Pulver: SB+120 (45%)      (06/04/09)

I really like Jens Pulver as a person, but I just can’t pull myself to pick him to win this fight.  The odds makers actually got this one right I’d say.  Pulver brings a ton of experience with him, but I think the age is catching up with him (or perhaps all the fights).  Last time I saw Pulver he looked pretty slow, and at this division, one can’t afford to be slow.  I know Grispi is very young at only twenty years old, but I think that pure athleticism should win this fight for him.  But, don’t ever count a wiley veteran out, especially if that wiley old veteran is Jens Pulver.

 

Manny “The Anvil” Gamburyan     vs     John Franchi

Gamburyan: SB-240 (71%)     (06/04/09)

Franchi: SB+190 (34%)     (06/04/09)

Well, I’ll tell you guys what I know.  Gamburyan was over-rated in the UFC, and is probably over-rated in this fight too.  Gamburyan has small man complex, meaning that his strengths are on the ground, yet he always seems to want to prove he can standup too.  If Franchi has any type of standup, and convince Gamuryan to stay standing Franchi will win.  Yet, If Gamburyan fights to his strengths meaning he takes the fight to the mat, then Gamburyan should win easily.  Look out though, Gamburyan is also injury prone, and I would be he is coming into this fight after some sort of injury.  Gamburyan is definately the favorite, but probably shouldn’t be by so much.

 

Rafael Rebello     vs     Kyle Dietz

Rebello: SB-115 (53%)     (06/04/09)

Dietz: SB-115 (53%)    (06/04/09)

 

Mike “The Beast” Campbell     vs     Anthony “Showtime” Pettis

Campbell: SB-340 (77%)     (06/04/09)

Pettis: SB+260 (28%)     (06/04/09)

 

Scott “Young Guns” Jorgensen     vs     Antonio Banuelos

Jorgensen: SB-145 (59%)     (06/04/09)

Banuelos: SB+115 (47%)     (06/04/09)

 

Frank Gomez     vs     Noah Thomas

Gomez: SB -160 (62%)     (06/04/09)

Thomas: SB+130 (43%)     (06/04/09)

 

Rolando Perez     vs     Seth “2-Quick” Dikun

Perez: SB -115 (53%)     (06/04/09)

Dikun: SB-115 (53%)     (06/04/09)

UFC 98: Evans vs Machida (5/23/09) (Predictions)

Posted in Predictions with tags , , , , , , , , , on May 15, 2009 by Maxwell Destree

Note: The odds listed are from www.betus.com (BU) and www.sportsbook.com (SB), they were listed as of 5/21/09.  Also, I will break down the line into percentages for everyone.  The percentage tells how often they would win the fight.  P.S. I know the percentages don’t always add to 100, that’s because thats the sportsbooks take, it’s just the way they do it.

 

Rashad Evans^$                               Lyoto Machida

rashad-evans1      vs       lyoto-machida

Rashad: BU+175 (36%), SB+165 (38%)  (5/13/09)

                   BU+150 (40%), SB+160 (38%)  (5/21/09)

Machida: BU-225 (69%), SB-205 (67%)  (5/13/09)

                     BU-200 (66%), SB-200 (66%)  (5/21/09)

 First, I apologize for not having this piece posted sooner, but hopefully a week before the fight works.  I believe and am willing to put money on Rashad Evans winning this fight.  There are several factors that brought me to this conclusion, some of which are speed, athleticism, and style.

I think that Evans has the perfect style and pedigree to beat the undefeated Machida.  I know that Machida has won every fight so far in the UFC, and that he has never lost a round in the UFC, but all good things must come to an end, and Machidas good win streak is going to end sooner than Evans.

Rashad was a division one wrestler for Michigan State University before he started in MMA.  I think it is safe to say that Evans is a better wrestler than Machida.  Also, I think that Evans is a better athlete in general, and quicker too.  Evans is in my opinion the quickest Light-heavyweight in the division.  I would expect Rashad to be able to cut off the angle, use his quick shot on Machida and take Machida down.  Machida has very good footwork, but isn’t as quick as Rashad.  In order for Rashad to win this fight he needs to take Machida down, and ground and pound him a little, rattle his cage a little bit.  It will not only score points on the judges score cards, but it will test Machidas resolve, which has never really been tested yet.  We still don’t know if Machida can take a good shot, or how tough he really is.

Machida likes to use his footwork and karate style to win his matches.  Machidas a counter-striker who prides himself on hitting without getting hit.  But, I don’t think Machida will knock Evans out.  Evans fought in the heavyweight division on the Ultimate Fighter tv show, and during that show he took some pretty clean shots from heavyweights and was never knocked out. 

 Basically, Machida isn’t going to knock out Evans which is probably the best way for him to win.  Evans is going to be quick enough to close the distance and take Machida down, look for Evans to take Machida down more than Machidataking Evans down.  Evans has a good wrestling background, and good ground and pound.  Evans is going to be able to control where the fight takes place, because Machida won’t be athletic enough to take Rashad down and score points.  Evans is going to either knockout Machida on the ground or possibly standing (Evans has very good punching power), or the fight will go to decision which Rashad will win because of the points he’ll score with his takedowns.

Lastly, lets not forget Rashad has never lost in the UFC either.  Yeah, he has had a lot of close calls (a draw and a couple of split-decisions) but Rashad has improved as a fighter every single time he has fought in the octagon.  If Rashad we’re to go back and re-fight those opponents now, I think he would fair much better.  Rashad has been in many close fights and he always comes out on top, the man knows how to win, the guy is simply a winner.

MONEY BET ($)

With Rashad being a Las Vegas underdog, and the reasons I explained above, how could one not want to bet on this.  Either way Evans is getting slighted by the odds.  I could see Evans being like +120 but +175? come on, gotta take those odds.

 

Added 5/21/09

I am still going with Evans,here are some keys to victory.

1. Don’t fall behind the judges scorecard early.  If Evans can keep the fight close and win the first and/or second rounds he might make Machida sweat a little. 

2.  Evans needs to be able to take Machida down, he doesn’t even have to control Machida on the ground, just score takedowns thereby scoring points on the judges scorecard.

3.  Don’t get over anxious.  Machida is a master at moving out of the way and disengaging and countering.  Evans has to keep his cool and stick to his gameplan especially in the first part of the fight.

4.  Don’t go straight in.  Thiago Siva showed us all what happens to a fighter who plots straight ahead towards Machida.  For those of us who don’t know what happend Silva got his face knocked off.  Evans needs to throw combinations, and change levels frequently, keep Machida guessing.

5.  Keep the pressure on Machida.  Evans is a superior athlete and wrestler than Machida, if he can close the distance and tie up Machida, he stands a real good chance of making Machida worry.  We have yet to see Machida in real trouble because no one has been able to keep constant pressure on him.

Evans is more than capable of following this gameplan.  As I stated earlier, Evans is going to be too fast, and to good of a wrestler for Machida to stay away from.  Evans, if your listening, win this one and show the MMA world you’re no joke.

 

Matt Hughes^$     vs     Matt Serra

Hughes: BU-275 (73%), SB-290 (74%)  (5/13/09)

                   BU-275 (73%), SB-275 (73%)  (5/21/09)

Serra: BU+190(34%)  SB+230 (30%)  (5/13/09)

              BU+190 (34%) SB+215 (31%)  (5/21/09)

Hughes is a pretty good lock for this fight.  Both fighters are about the same age, so both of their primes (which have passed) were around the same time.  In Hughes’ prime he was champ and virtually unbeatable.  Serra was always a pretty good fighter, but was never at the same level as Hughes.

Don’t count Serra out though, he did beat Georges St.Pierre as a huge underdog.  Serra does have heart, and he will show up to fight.  With that said though, Hughes has heart, and I know Hughes is looking forward to this fight too. 

Basically the best Matt Serra wouldn’t usually beat the best Matt Hughes.  Hughes for the win, either by good ol’ fashioned ground and pound, or submission.  Yeah, I know Serra is a BJJ (Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu) Black belt, but Hughes has some pretty good BJJ too.  Hughes might over-power or daze Serra and then slap a submission on him.  Go Hughes.

MONEY BET ($)

I think Hughes wins this fight about 75% of the time too, the odds are reasonable.

 

Added 5/21/09

Still happy with this pick.

 

Drew McFedries*     vs     Xavier Foupa-Pokam

McFedries: SB+160 (38%)  (5/21/09)

Foupa-Pokam: SB-200 (66%)  (5/21/09)

Well, I don’t really know who to go with on this one.  Las Vegas odds haven’t been released yet, but I think McFedries will be the slight favorite.  He has more experience in the UFC, with a couple of wins and some losses.  The losses have come to some very competitive opponents, and his wins have come against some OK opponents.  I don’t know if Xavier is a good or OK opponent, but he did lose his UFC debut by decision.  I expect McFedries to win.

 

Added 5/21/09

Well, I was wrong, McFedries is the underdog in this one but a substantial margin.  Apparently MdFedries is absolutely atrocious on the ground, but has one punch knockout power.  Foupa-Pokham on the other hand is slightly more versed on the ground, quicker and a good striker himself.  McFedries always has that punchers chance though, and he has lost his last two fights in the UFC, so is he due or not? Thats the real question.  I’m going to change this pick and goFoupa-Pokham by submission.

 

Updated 5/22/09

OK readers, I hate to do this to you, but I have been struggling with this match ever since it was released.  I slept on it, and my gut is telling me to stay with McFedries, my initial pick.  So, one day before fight time, I am going to switch this pick back to McFedries who will win by knockout.  I think yesterday I was just surprised to see him come out as the underdog, but I am ok with it.  Go McFedries.

 

Brock Larson*     vs     Mike Pyle

Larson: SB-290 (74%)  (5/21/09)

Pyle:

I saw Chris Wilsons last fight against John Howard which he lost by split decision.  However, I wasn’t too impressed.  I haven’t seen Larson fight, but everything I read is very positive.  Two of his losses have come to quality opponents (I don’t know who is first loss was to) in Carlos Condit, and John Fitch.  Wilson also has a loss to John Fitch, and I think that Wilson would probably lose to Condit too.

My pick is for Larson, but don’t ask me how or when, this could go to decision, be a submission, or even a knockout.

 

Added 5/21/09

Still sounds good to me.

 

Added 5/23/09

Well Mike Pyle has replaced Chris Wilson as of Friday 5/23/09.  My pick is still for Larson, however I don’t really know very much about Pyle. 

 

Dan Miller*    vs     Chael Sonnen

Sonnen: SB+125 (44%)  (5/21/09)

Miller: SB-155 (61%)  (5/21/09)

Another tough fight to pick.  I haven’t seen either one fight yet, but I think Sonnen might have the edge.  Miller is a tough and good up and coming fighter in the UFC, but has yet to fight any real talent in the UFC.  Sonnen on the other hand has more experience, and has faced some better competition than Miller.  This is really a good test for Miller Sonnen is a fighter from the next level up, but I don’t know if Miller is ready or capable of moving up a level.  Las Vegas odds will favor Sonnen I think, but this fight is a good measuring stick for Miller more than Sonnen.  Expect Miller to bring it, and achieve a possible upset.

 

Added 5/21/09

Well, I was wrong, Miller is the favorite for the fight.  Also, I have seen a Sonnen fight now, I saw where he fought Paulo Filho.  He did win the fight, but in less than spectacular fashion.  He is a good wrestler, but his standup is lacking.  Sonnen is still going to be a tough test for Miller, and yes, I am going to change my pick.  I was not impresed with the Filho fight, and I expect Miller being more than capable of taking Sonnen down.

Sean Sherk*     vs     Frank Edgar

Sherk: BU-275 (73%) SB-295 (74%)  (5/13/09)

               BU-300 (75%) SB-365 (78%)  (5/21/09)

Edgar: BU+190 (34%) SB+235(30%)  (5/13/09)

                BU+200 (33%) SB+285 (26%)  (5/21/09)

Sherk has great wrestling, but I have yet to see much more than that.  He enjoys ground and pound, but like some wrestlers I think he feels he needs to get that big knockout under his belt.  Sherk has been working his boxing, and it’s pretty good, but he has yet to finish anybody with it, so as of right now, I don’t think too much of it. 

The two both have wins over Tyson Griffin, and Hermes Franca by decision.  Sherk has losses to Matt Hughes, BJ Penn and Georges St.Pierre all of whom are of the highest level.  Edgars only loss has come to Gray Maynard, who many feel could be competing for the lightweight title in the future. 

I think that experience is whats going to win this fight, and Sherk simply has more of it.  I am willing to bet this will be mostly fought on the mat, and that it will go to decision.  However, with that said these may be two ex-wrestlers who want to prove themselves on their feet, so there is a slight chance it might stay standing. Look for Sherk to win, possibly even by Split-decision, I think it will be that close.

 

Added 5/21/09

Well, Sherk is climbing as a favorite.  Sherk is and should be the favorite, but I just don’t see him being that clear cut of one.  This could definatley be a good fight to throw down a couple dollars on Edgar for an upset.

 

Pat Barry     vs     Tim Hague

Barry: BU-350 (77%) (5/13/09)

               BU-330 (77%) SB-500 (83%)  (5/21/09)

Hague: BU+225 (31%)  (5/13/09)

                 BU+220 (31%) SB+300 (25%)  (5/21/09)

I haven’t had the opportunity to see either of these guys fight, but I will go with Vegas on this one.  Barry has a win in his only UFC appearance, against Dan Evensen, while Hague has yet to fight in the octagon.  Hague’s measureables that they have on his bio on the UFC website are impressive to read.  He is 6’4” and weighs 265, while Barry is 5’11” at 235.  Barry is 4-0 while Hague is 9-1.  By reading these stats, one might think Hague should be the favorite.  Barry is from the US and Hague is from Canada, maybe he is getting that foreign fighter disrespect, and maybe just isn’t as popular as Hague in the US so he’s the underdog.  I guess Vegas knows something I don’t though.  I am not picking this one yet, I want to see the weigh-ins.

 

Added 5/21/09

Man, Barry is a heavy favorite in this fight still.  I haven’t seen either one ever fight, and with the shear size advantage of Hague its still hard to believe Barry can be such a favorite.  I read an article that said that Barry although small has speed and power like (not the same as) Mike Tyson had.  Barry has very good punching power for the division.  I’m still gonna wait for the weigh ins.

 

Added 5/23/09

Ok, because I have to make a pick I will go with Barry, apparently he has very good leg kicks and will be able to chop the taller Hague down.  Hague has said that he plans to slug it out with Barry, and that’s Barry’s specialty.  Barry by knockout.

 

Phillipe Nover*     vs     Kyle Bradley

Nover: BU-400 (80%) SB-365 (78%)  (5/13/09)

                BU-330 (77%) SB-500 (83%)  (5/21/09)

Bradley: BU+250 (29%) SB+285 (26%)  (5/13/09)

                   BU+220 (31%) SB+300 (25%)  (5/21/09)

Well, one sportsbook has Nover as an extreme favorite, another has it closer.  Nover is definitely the favorite, but probably not by as much as everyone thinks. 

Nover was featured on The Ultimate Fighter tv show, and Dana White (the President of the UFC) made a very flattering comparison between Nover and Georges St.Pierre.  I think this has created over-hype for Nover.  Nover is a good fighter, no doubt about it, but he did lose in the finale of the show. 

Bradley has lost his only two UFC fights, but they were to two very respectable opponents in Chris Lytle, and Joe Lauzon.  I think Nover would lose to both of these fighters as well.  This fight is definitely a good litmus test for Nover.

I think Nover will still get the win, but I would say he wins about 60-65% of the time in this fight.  Also, I believe the UFC wants Nover to win, so they gave him a matchup that he should win.

 

Added 5/21/09

Well, Nover went up in one sportsbook and down in the other.  Perhaps Nover does win this fight more than 60-65% of the time, but no more than 70%.  I still think the sportsbooks have him rated too highly.  But, he will still win this fight.

 

 

 

Krzysztof Soszynski*$   vs     Andre Gusmao

Soszynski: SB+125 (44%)  (5/21/09)

Gusmao: SB-155 (61%)  (5/21/09)

 I am going to refer to Soszynski as KS his name is too big of a pain in the you know what to spell.  KS is going to win this one.  KS is a very good fighter, and has gotten better since coming off the Ultimate Fighter TV show.  He lost during the show, but my understanding is that he was hurt.  KS has since then had two very impressive performances in the UFC.  KS has fought very recently though, but he did not take much punishment (if any) and unless there was an injury that we don’t know about he should  be in good health.

Gusmao lost in his UFC debut, but I bet he is a better fighter than some might give him credit for.  His loss came to a very athletic and exciting fighter in Jon Jones.  I know Gusmao is looking to get things on the right track in the UFC, and KS is a good test for that.  Gusmao definitely has a good chance against KS.  However, KS has just been on fire lately and I just don’t see Gusmao taking it.

 

Below was Added 5/21/09

I wrote the upper part before the odds were released, Guamao is actually the favorite to win this fight.  I still stick by what I have written though, I think that KS will still win, and with him being the underdog this has now turned into a $bet.  GO KS.

 

Dave Kaplan     vs     George Roop^$

Kaplan: BU+110 (48%)  (5/13/09)

                 BU+110 (48%) SB+135 (43%)  (5/21/09)

Roop: BU-150 (60%)  (5/13/09)

              BU-150 (60%) SB-165 (62%)  (5/21/09)

Both of these fighters were on the Ultimate Fighter TV show, Roop was surprisingly resilient, while Kaplan was surprisingly over-confident.  Roop has a long frame and if he has developed since the show should beat Kaplan by decision.  Roop doesn’t have any knockout power, and I don’t recall how good his ground game is.  Kaplan however thinks he has an iron chin, and he wants to go out there and bang.  Also, Kaplan is very short for the division and really should be fighting as at 145lbs.  I look for Roop to use his reach, and take Kaplan down and get the W in less than spectacular fashion.

MONEY BET ($)

I think this is a good bet, personally I see Roop winning this fight about 65-70% of the time.  With the odds given, I would bet on Roop.

UFC 97 – Redemption (Predictions)

Posted in Predictions on May 1, 2009 by Maxwell Destree

UFC 97 – Redemption

 

Anderson Silva (-600)^ $     vs     Thales Leites(+350)

Anderson Silva is probably pound for pound the best fighter in all of MMA. You simply can’t bet against him.  Leites may and I repeat may be a better fighter on the ground, but the only problem is?  Will the fight ever get there.  I think Silva knocks out Leites in the late first round or possibly mid second round.

 

Chuck Liddell (-200)*     vs     Mauricio Rua (+150)

Chuck Liddell is getting old, yes, but he has faced some pretty stiff competition lately.  He had a split decision with Keith Jardine, and lost to the now Light Heavyweight Champion. Not to mention he beat Vanderlei Silva not too long ago.  With renewed ambition and motivation (as well as training routine) I think Chuck has it in him to beat Rua.  Let’s face it Rua has had very lack-luster performances so far in the UFC, and it’s just not time for the star that is Chuck Lidell to stop shining yet.

 

Krzystof Soszynski (-165)*    vs     Brian Stann (+125)

I have seen Krzystof fight before, and he is a good fighter.  I know that Stann is a former WEC champ, but based on who has fought who, and recent wins and loses I think Krzystof has the motivation and determination to beat Stann.

 

Cheick Kongo (-300)*$     vs     Antoni Hardonk (+200)

I believe that Cheick Kongo is over-rated for any division including the heavyweight, but I still think he is good enough to beat Hardonk.  Kongo just doesn’t have that it factor in the ring that the best heavyweight contenders have. But, Kongo will win.

 

Steve Cantwell (+190)    vs     Luiz Cane (-275)*

Both men have fought in the UFC however, I am still not very familiar with them.  Based on previous fights and fighting styles I believe Cane will win, however it should probably be a pretty good battle.

 

Eliot Marshall ^$    vs     Vinicius Magalhaes

On the UFC website Magalhaes has heart listed as one of his strengths.  I feel the exact opposite.  When Magalhaes was on the Ultimate Fighter I felt he lacked the fire, the heart to be truly great.  He is a phenominal athlete with great Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but punch him in the face once and the fight is over. 

Also, Marshall is no joke, that guy has a serious fight game, and I look for him to take it to Magalhaes and achieve an upset victory.

 

Denis Kang (-350) *    vs     Xavier Foupa-Pokam (+225)

This one I’m just going with the Las Vegas Odds.

 

Jason MacDonald (-130)   vs     Nate Quarry (-110)^$

McDonald is a great fighter, but he is just one level lower than Quarry.  Quarry’s losses have come to the top fighters in his weight division.  I know that Quarry has battled through some injuries, but he has tremendous heart, not to mention a very balanced fight game.  I think Quarry will take this one, but expect McDonald to battle it out to the end.  This has potential for fight of the night.

 

David Loiseau (-125)   vs     Ed Herman (-115)^

Herman hasn’t shown me much lately, and Loiseau I haven’t seen lately.  I think it’s pretty much a coin flip.  I give it to Herman though.

 

Mark Bocek (-300)*    vs     David Bielkheden (+200)

Las Vegas Odds have Bocek winning this one.

 

Ryo Chonan (-220)     vs     TJ Grant (+170)*

Las Vegas Odds have Chonan winning this one, but he has struggled in the UFC.  He has a couple of losses and a sub-par victory under his belt.  Chonan is the perfect candidate for a new comer to get his first UFC win on. (However, I have never seen Grant fight, and don’t really know too much about him.  What I do know is that Chonan does not impress me.)

 

Sam Stout (-130)    vs     Matt Wiman (-110)^$

For whatever reason Sam Stout is loved and endeared to many fans of MMA.  He is simply over-rated.  He’s known for an upset knockout of Spencer Fisher (who later avenged the loss).  Since beating Fisher initially Stout has done little if anything in the UFC. 

 Wiman on the other hand seems to be one of those fighters who has heart and loves fighting.  He looks a little better and more refined every fight.  Wiman does not have top level talent though and probably will never fight for the title, but he has enough heart to beat Sam Stout.

 

(originally posted on 4/18/09)