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UFC 99 – The Comeback (6/13/09) (Predictions)

Posted in Uncategorized with tags , , , , , , , , on June 10, 2009 by Maxwell Destree

Note: The odds listed are from www.betus.com (BU) and www.sportsbook.com (SB), and my own personal opinion of what they should be (PO)(I am just trying this out, don’t be surprised if they’re way off to start with).  Also, I will break down the line into percentages for everyone.  The percentage tells how often they would win the fight.  P.S. I know the percentages don’t always add to 100, that’s because thats the sportsbooks take, it’s just the way they do it.

 

Rich Franklin^$                                Wanderlei Silva

Rich Franklin     vs     Wanderlei Silva 2

Franklin: BU-155 (61%), SB-145 (59%)     (06/04/09)

                     PO-225(69%)

Silva: BU+115 (47%), SB+115 (47%)     (06/04/09)

              PO+205 (33%)

I think you would have to be out of your mind not to go with Franklin on this one.  Yeah, Franklin has had some tough fights lately, and the loss to Dan Henderson didn’t help, but remember he was a UFC Champ for a long time.  Franklin is still a top level talent despite losing to Anderson Silva twice and Henderson.  Franklins conditioning can match Wanderlei Silvas, and his striking is better.

Silva on the other hand has not impressed me at all since coming into the UFC.  Not only that, Silva has suffered some very vicious knockouts throughout his career the last of which came in his last fight against Quentin Jackson.  It is very hard for a fighter to recover mentally and physically after taking a vicious knockout, and Silva has had several.  I think that because of the effects that these knockouts are bound to have, Silva has lost speed and can’t take a punch like he use to.

I would anticipate Franklin knocking Silva out, probably in the second round, Franklin is smart and will feel Silva out before dialing in his range.  I think that the odds for this fight are way too close, I think Franklin wins this fight about 7 out of 10 times, great odds for a betting man.

 

Cain Velasquez     vs     Cheick Kongo^

Velasquez: SB-200 (67%)     (06/04/09)

                         PO-110 (52%)

Kongo: SB+160 (38%)     (06/04/09)

                 PO-110 (52%)

Boy, the UFC sure doesn’t make them easy to pick.  This is a great matchup, it will help give a better look at Heavyweight contendership.  I know that Cain is touted as the UFC Heavyweight to watch, but in the shadows of the division Cheick Kongo has slowly been making a name for himself. 

Kongo has had several nice wins in the UFC, and is currently on a three fight win streak.  Both of Kongos losses in the UFC have been by way of split decision.  I initially wasn’t impressed too much with Kongo and felt that he was over-rated.  However, I can no longer look past his record and his last three fights.  Kongo has looked very crisp with his striking, he has great timing, and seems determined to be a force at this division.

Cain is no slouch either, don’t get me wrong, he can still very easily win this fight.  I just feel that Kongo’s experience is going to carry him in this fight.  I don’t know how the winner will have won, knockout or decision but I can guess it won’t be by submission.  This should be a very fun fight to watch.

 

Mike Swick^$     vs     Ben Saunders

Swick: BU-225 (69%), SB-210 (68%)     (06/04/09)

               PO-300 (75%)

Saunders: BU+175 (36%), SB+170 (37%)     (06/04/09)

                      PO+280 (28%)

I know Saunders is good, perhaps very good, but Swick is better.  Swicks only loss of note in the UFC is to a very good fighter in Yushin Okami.  Since that loss Swick has dropped a weight class, and looks even quicker and more powerful than he did before.  Swick is lightning fast and has the MMA repitour to boot.  Saunders is going to be in for a long fight, or perhaps a very quick one.

Either way, I think Swick is a very good bet to win this fight.

                    

 Marcus Davis^$     vs     Dan Hardy

Davis: BU-225 (69%), SB-210 (68%)     (06/04/09)

               PO-320 (76%)

Hardy: BU+175 (36%), SB+170 (37%)     (06/04/09)

                PO+295 (25%)

Davis is going to knock Hardy out.  No if’s, and’s, or but’s about it.  Davis has faced much better competition, and has held his own.  Also, Hardy’s bread and butter is his striking, but Davis holds the winning hand when it comes to striking.  Davis was a professional and amateur boxer, so his hands are much more refined than Hardy’s.  Laslty, Hardy has been running his mouth saying Davis is a fake Irish man, so Davis really has incentive to shove his fist directly into Hardy’s pie hole.  Davis by knockout in the first round.

 

Spencer Fisher*     vs     Caol Uno

Fisher: BU-225 (69%), SB-210 (68%)     (06/04/09)

               PO-150 (60%)

Uno: BU+175 (36%), SB+170 (37%)    (06/04/09)

           PO+130 (43%)

 Well, here’s another tough one to pick.  Uno is very good on the mat, Fisher is good on his feet and OK on the mat.  If Fisher can keep the fight standing he wins, if Uno gets Fisher down there is a very good chance he wins.  Ultimately though I think that Fisher can neutralize enought of Uno’s game to get a decision victory.

 

Terry Etim*     vs     Justin Buchholz

Etim: BU-350 (78%), SB-500 (83%)     (06/04/09)

            PO-215 (68%)

Bucholz: BU+225 (31%), SB+300 (25%)      (06/04/09)

                   PO+190 (34%)

I have not had the opportunity to see either of these fighters fight, but I know Etim is pretty good.  He has more Octagon experience than Bucholz and I think that will come into play here.  For what its worth, Bucholz has a first round loss to Matt Wiman, and Wiman has a decision loss to Sam Stout who Etim beat.  By all accords Wiman probably won the fight, but if Wiman and Etim are at about the same level (which I think they are) then Etim will simply be the better fighter.

Etim victory by way of any means necessary.

 

Dennis Siver*     vs     Dale Hartt

Siver: BU-200 (67%), SB-200 (67%)     (06/04/09)

             PO-170 (63%)

Hartt: BU+150 (40%), SB+160 (38%)     (06/04/09)

              PO+160 (38)

 Siver has more experience.  I have never seen either fighter fight, but the general consensus among the “experts” is that Siver is the better fighter.

 

Paul Taylor*     vs     Peter Sobotta

Taylor: BU-500 (83%), SB-500 (83%)     (06/04/09)

                 PO-210 (68%)

Sobotta: BU+300 (25%), SB+300 (25%)     (06/04/09)

                   PO+220 (32%)

 Paul Taylor is a fun fighter to watch, but really hasn’t shown much in the UFC.  Taylor is a good fighter for anyone to fight entering the UFC.  Taylor is definately beatable, and Sobotta has a very, very good chance of achieving the upset victory.

Sobotta is from Germany, and that’s where this event is, so he’ll be fighting in front of a home crowd so to speak.  The only reason Taylor is picked to win is because of his experience in the UFC.  Taylor wins by decision.

(Note: I haven’t picked too many upset wins for this card, but this could very easily be one of them, I just can’t bring myself to pick Sobotta, but don’t anyone be surprised if Taylor does lose this fight.)

 

Paul Kelly*     vs     Rolando Delgado

Kelly: BU-550 (85%), SB-500 (83%)    (06/04/09)

             PO

Delgado: BU+325 (24%), SB+300 (25%)     (06/04/09)

                   PO

I’m going to wait on this prediction until after the weigh ins.

 

 Denis Stojnic*     vs     Stefan Struve

Stojnic: BU-110 (52%), SB-Even     (06/04/09)

                 PO-160 (62%)

Struve: BU-130 (57%), SB-130 (57%)     (06/04/09)

                PO+130 (43%)

Struve is too tall and lenky to be a real threat in the UFC.  Sruve is listed as 6’11” the only real athletes at this height are playing in the NBA, not fighting for the UFC. 

Stojnic isn’t the best bet, but I think he can take Struve.  Despite being much shorter at 5’11” he still weighs the same.  Both fighters have one fight in the UFC and both have a loss.  Both losses are to quality opponents in Cain Velasquez and Junior Dos Antos.

To help put this fight into perspective its like asking an NBA basketball player to fight linebacker in the NFL.  I would consider the linebacker to be a much more explosive athlete than an NBA player.  Although this example isn’t perfect because they’re both fighters in the same sport.  Genetically, Stojnic is going to be more agile even though he is overweight.  Stojnic by ground and pound or knockout.

 

Mustapha Al Turk     vs     Mirko Cro Cop*

Al Turk: BU+275 (27%), SB+350 (22%)     (06/04/09)

                  PO+300 (25%)

Cro Cop: BU-450 (82%), SB-550 (85%)     (06/04/09)

                   PO-430 (81%)

Man, talk about a question mark, Mirko “Cro Cop” is a human question mark. Will he show up to fight?  Will he be dissappointment again? No one can really tell.  What I do know is that if Mirko can fight like everyone knows he can he should easily win.  But, we’ll have to see who shows up.

Also, the UFC really wants Mirko to be a mainstay in the company, perhaps that setting one up for him to knock down if you get my drift.

 

John Hathaway*     vs     Rick Story

Hathaway: SB-150 (60%)     (06/04/09)

                         PO-120 (56%)

Story: SB+120 (45%)     (06/04/09)

              PO+120 (45%)

I’ve never seen either fighter fight before, this is Story’s first UFC appearance and Hathaways second.  Hathaway is probably a safe bet though.

A Few Notes to My Readers:

Posted in Uncategorized on May 26, 2009 by Maxwell Destree

1. Feel free to check out my Top Ten Fighters, Top Five Light-Heavyweight, and Top Five Lightweight Fighters posts they have been updated with the results of UFC 98 in mind.

2.  I hope to have my own personal lines and preliminary predictions for UFC 99 up later this week, so look for that.  Also, Iwill try to find an article I read about betting on MMA and create a link to it for anyone thats interested in that sort of thing.

3.  I apologize that I haven’t had time to write up the latest Ultimate Fighter Episode, I will try to do that early Wednesday Morning, and I will try to have the new show written up right away after it airs.  Sorry for any inconveniences the delay may have caused anyone.

I appreciate everyone stopping by and I look forward to hearing from everyone  in the future. 

PS. Don’t be shy about leaving a comment!