Archive for Pay-Per Views

UFC 100 (7/11/09) (Predictions)

Posted in Predictions with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on July 6, 2009 by Maxwell Destree

Note: The odds listed are from www.betus.com (BU) and www.sportsbook.com (SB), and my own personal opinion of what they should be (PO)(I am just trying this out, don’t be surprised if they’re way off to start with).  Also, I will break down the line into percentages for everyone.  The percentage tells how often they would win the fight.  P.S. I know the percentages don’t always add to 100, that’s because that’s the sportsbooks take, it’s just the way they do it.

My picks will be highlighted in bold.

 

Brock Lesnar                                   Frank Mir^

Brock Lesnar 2    vs    Frank Mir 2

Lesnar: BU-240 (71%), SB-215 (68%)    (07/06/09)

                 PO+130 (43%)

Mir: BU+190 (34%), SB+175 (36%)     (07/06/09)

          PO-150 (60%)

 Ok Ladies and Gentleman the rematch everyone has been waiting for and everyone is speculating about.  There really is no way to predict this one with any level of certainty.  Lesnar is a FREAK and when in the ring reminds me of a Bull on Speed in a China shop.  However, Mir does have a win over him, although some consider it controversial.  For the physical tools that Lesnar has, Mir has the same tools for pure MMA know-how.

My pick is for Mir, I have already bet a friend that Mir is going to win, although I shouldn’t have because I could have gotten better odds from Las Vegas.  Mir was a big underdog, but the odds have been slowly creeping down and are becoming more reasonable.  I think that a bet on Mir isn’t that foolish, I think that at this point in his career he is primed for a big upset victory to re-cement his place in UFC history.

Mir has the full arsenal of MMA tools at his disposal, and that’s why I have to pick him.  Lesnar is still learning the sport, and at this level pure Freakish ability still will only get one so far.  Mir can submit Lesnar on the ground, and Mir has better more technical standup.

I will admit that Lesnar still obviously has a very real chance and ability to just bull-rush and pummel Mir into submission or unconsciousness.

Ultimately the fight will end with Mir knocking Lesnar out, yup, you read it right, no need to re-read it, Mir by Knockout.

 

Georges “Rush” St.Pierre^            Thiago “PitBull” Alves

Georges St.Pierre 2    vs     Thiago Alves 3

St.Pierre: BU-300 (75%), SB-285 (74%)     (07/06/09)

                     PO-300 (75%)

Alves: BU+220 (31%), SB+225 (31%)     (07/06/09)

              PO+220 (31%)

 St.Pierre is possibly the best MMA fighter in the world.  Alves is no joke either, but he still seems a little too raw for someone on St.Pierres level.  Alves will definitely be a contender and possibly a future champ later in life, but its just too early for him.

St.Pierre is a fighter in the prime of his life.  St.Pierre in my opinion is the most pure athlete in all of MMA and he has too much ability for anyone at this point including Alves.  I expect that Alves will give us a good fight, and may even get St.Pierre in trouble, but I expect St.Pierres experience in the Octagon will pull him through.

I think this fight will probably go all five rounds, and I expect St.Pierre to win via Unanimous Decision.  Alves won’t be able to take St.Pierre down, yet St.Pierre will probably take Alves down to score points.  I think that St.Pierre will also be able to control the standup as well.  Finally though, how can anyone bet against St.Pierre at this stage in his career?

 

John Fitch*     vs     Paulo Thiago

Fitch: BU-450 (82%), SB-365 (78%)     (07/06/09)

             PO-350 (78%)

Thiago: BU+325 (24%), SB+285 (26%)          (07/06/09)

                 PO+310 (24%)

Thiago is going to be a good fight for Fitch who has been on a role in the UFC (except for the loss to GSP).  Thiago has won his last two fights by TKO (the only two TKOs of his eleven wins).  Thiagos specialty seems to be on the mat with the submission game.  Fitch is no stranger to the mat though, he is an ex-wrestler for Purdue University, although it will be interesting to see if Thiago can get Fitch on his back.  Thiago definitely has a chance to submit Fitch, but probably won’t knock him out.  Fitch has only been knocked out once in his twenty plus fights. 

Fitch will win by decision, possibly by knockout in the second round too.  I don’t think it would be an early or late knockout though.  Fitch is just too seasoned for Thiago.

 

Dan “Hendo” Henderson     vs     Michael “The Count” Bisping^$

Henderson: BU-225 (69%), SB-225 (69%)      (07/06/09)   

                        PO+165 (38%)

Bisping: BU+175 (36%), SB+185 (35%)     (07/06/09)

                 PO-185 (65%)

 Michael Bisping is complaining about the lack of respect that hes gotten from both fans and the media lately, and quite frankly I would have to agree with him.  Henderson was a great fighter, notice that I said was.  Henderson is still a very good fighter, but I think Father Time has caught up with him and he is no longer considered great, at least not in my book.

Bisping on the other hand is at a point where he is more athletic and quicker than Henderson.  Could the best ever Michael Bisping beat the best ever Dan Henderson?  Probably not, in fact most likely not, but can the Michael Bisping of today beat the Dan Henderson of today?  I think probably. 

I saw Hendersons last fight against Rich Franklin, and I was not impressed.  Both fighters looked slow and tentative.  Also, as I said earlier, Henderson is getting old.  I know that Randy Couture is old, but he is also fighting in a division where speed isn’t as much of a factor.  For a Middleweight its a combination of speed and power.  Henderson seems to have lost his speed, but still retains his power, supposedly even though we haven’t seen it in a while.

Bisping on the other hand looks very fast at Middleweight, but could admittedly probably use some more power.  I think that Bisping will be able to stuff most of Hendersons shots and keep the fight standing where he has an advantage.

I think Bisping wins this either by a late third round knockout, or decision.  I know Henderson has never been knocked out, but after taking two and a half rounds of punches he might give way.  Also, I think Henderson some times suffers from what many wrestlers appear to suffer from, and that’s trying to strike with a striker when they should be taking the striker down.

Bisping to win and take on Anderson Silva in England for the Middleweight belt where he will get his arse kicked.

 

Yoshihiro Akiyama*     vs     Alan “The Talent” Belcher

Akiyama: BU-300 (75%), SB-340 (77%)     (07/06/09)

                      PO-150 (60%)

Belcher: BU+220 (31%), SB+260 (28%)     (07/06/09)

                  PO+150 (40%)

This is Akiyamas first fight in the UFC, and he will be facing an opponent who has had eight fights in the UFC.  Akiyama has come to the UFC from Japan with much fanfare and is obviously the favorite for this fight.  I am personally not familiar with any of Akiyamas previous opponents but he has had quite a run of ending his fights in the first round.

Belcher is 5-3 in the Octagon with wins over Jorge Santiago, Kalib Starnes and Ed Herman.  His three losses are to Jason Day, Kendall Grove and Yushin Okami, with the exception of Day, not a bad couple of guys to lose to.  Belcher is still a very real threat to Akiyama although I just don’t think Belcher will have the mat skills to ward of Akiyama for too long.

I see Akiyama winning by either a late submission or by decision, possibly split, but most likely unanimous.

 

Mark “The Hammer” Coleman   vs   Stephan ” American Psycho” Bonnar^

Coleman: BU+250 (29%), SB+250 (29%)     (07/06/09)

                     PO+560 (18%)

Bonnar: BU-350 (78%), SB-325 (76%)     (07/06/09)

                  PO-550 (85%)

 I will keep this one quick, Coleman is too old.

Bonnar by knockout in the second round.

 

Jon “Bones” Jones*     vs     Jake “Irish” O’Brien

Jones: BU-450 (82%), SB-500 (83%)     (07/06/09)

              PO-410 (80%)

O’Brien: BU+325 (24%), SB+300 (25%)     (07/06/09)

                PO+325 (24%)

 Jones is a very athletic fighter, and very unorthodox.  Jones has had two fights in the UFC both wins by unanimous decisions.  The UFC is expecting big things from Jones who is only 21 years old and full of potential.  Jones is the clear favorite to win this fight.

O’Brien is no stranger to the Octagon in his own right.  He has had mixed results, but has faced decent competition.  Unfortunately for O’Brien I think the athleticism of Jones will be too much. 

I am going out on a limb here but I really think Jones is going to get an early victory, by knockout.

 

Dong “Stun Gun” Hyun Kim*     vs     TJ Grant

Hyun Kim: BU, SB

                       PO-300 (75%)

Grant: BU, SB

              PO+220 (31%)

 Dong Hyun Kim has had more fights in the UFC against better competition, and he has done pretty good.  I know that Kim is the favorite for this fight.  Grant has had one fight in the UFC and that was a controversial split decision win over Ryo Chonan.  Personally I never thought too much of Chonan, so I don’t give Grants victory over him much credit. 

Kim by submission in the first round.

 

Mac Danzig     vs     Jim Miller*

Danzig: BU+160 (38%), SB+160 (38%)     (07/06/09)

               PO+160 (38%)

Miller: BU-200 (67%), SB-200 (67%)     (07/06/09)

               PO-200 (67%)

 Well, one thing is for sure and that’s that Danzig is in desperate need of a win.  Danzig has had five fights in the UFC with a record of 2-3.  The one thing that Danzig has going for him is that he has fought some pretty good fighters.  He has losses to Josh Neer, Clay Guida, and Kurt Pellegrino and holds wins over Mark Bocek and Tommy Speer. 

Miller has yet to fight that level of competition.  Miller is 2-1 in the Octagon with wins over David Baron and Matt Wiman.  Miller lost his last fight which was against a very tough Gray Maynard.  Miller managed to go 3 grueling rounds with Maynard but lost by unanimous decision. 

Although Danzig has more experience, I don’t think he has the mentality or physical ability to improve much in the UFC.  Miller is still somewhat unproven although a win over Matt Wiman is a good start to proving ones self.  I just feel like Danzig is on his way out of the UFC while Miller is still developing as a fighter and a potential threat in the Lightweight division.

Miller by Unanimous Decision after three rounds of some very impressive grappling.

 

CB “The Doberman” Dollaway^     vs     Tom “Filthy” Lawlor

Dolloway: BU, SB

                     PO-120 (55%)

Lawlor: BU, SB

                PO+110 (48%)

 Both fighters are veterans from the Ultimate Fighter Tv Show, so I have seen both fighters fight.  Lawlor is good, probably better than most people give him credit for, but Dollaway although arrogant is the better fighter.  Dolloway despite losing in the finale of the show has gotten better over time, and truly seems to have what it takes to be a top tier MMA fighter. 

I don’t know exactly how the fight will go down, but I expect some good ground and pound from Dolloway and probably a unanimous or maybe split decision win for the Doberman.

 

Matt “The Real One” Grice     vs     Sannon Gugerty*

Grice: BU, SB

              PO+160 (38%)

Gugerty: BU, SB

                 PO-180 (64%)

Grice has had a rough go of it in the UFC, he has a 1-2 record.  His win comes by split-decision against Jason Black while his two losses are to Matt Veach and Terry Etim.  Etim is definitely a good fighter in the UFC and no slouch to have a loss to.  However, one would have to believe that with a Lightweight division as competitive as it is that Grice can’t afford any more losses.  Unfortunately his opponent is probably in the same boat. 

Gugerty has had two fights in the UFC with one win and one loss.  He beat Dale Hartt, but lost a tough fight with Spencer Fisher that went deep into the third round.  Being able to go deep into the third round with Spencer Fisher gets more respect in my book than two first round losses and a split decision win.

I think Gugerty takes this one in the second round by submission.