Archive for UFC

UFC 101(08/08/09) (Predictions)

Posted in Predictions with tags , , , , , , , , , , on August 3, 2009 by Maxwell Destree

BJ Penn                                            Kenny Florian^$

BJ Penn    vs    Kenny Florian

Penn: BU-230 (70%), SB-260 (72%)

            PO+150 (40%)

Florian: BU+180 (36%), SB+200 (33%)

                PO-150 (60%)

 

Anderson “The Spider” Silva^     vs     Forrest Griffin

Silva: BU-350 (78%), SB-350 (78%)

            PO-260 (72%)

Griffin: BU+250 (29%), SB+275 (27%)

              PO+260 (28%)

 

Amir Sadollah     vs     Johny Hendricks

Sadollah: BU-130 (56%), SB-115 (53%)

                  PO: Even

Hendricks: BU: Even (50%), SB-115 (53%)

                       PO: Even

 

Kendall “Da Spyder” Grove     vs     Ricardo “Big Dog” Almeida

Grove: BU+135 (43%), SB+120 (45%)

              PO-120 (54%)

Almeida: BU-165 (62%), SB-150 (60%)

                   PO+125 (46%)

 

Josh “The Dentist” Neer     vs     Kurt “Batman” Pellegrino^$

Neer: BU-220 (69%), SB-215 (68%)

            PO-160 (62%)

Pellegrino: BU+175 (36%), SB+175 (36%)

                       PO+160 (38%)

 

 Thales Leites     vs     Alessio “Legionarius” Sakara

Leites: BU-350 (78%), SB-325 (76%)

              PO-350 (78%)

Sakara: BU+250 (29%), SB+250 (29%)

                PO+350 (22%)

 

Shane “Sugar” Nelson     vs     Aaron Riley

Nelson: BU+130 (43%), SB+120 (45%)

                 PO-130 (56%)

Riley: BU-160 (62%), SB-150 (60%)

             PO+125 (44%)

 

Tamdan “The Barn Cat” McCrory*     vs     John “Doomsday” Howard

McCrory: BU-200 (67%), SB-185 (65%)

                    PO-200 (67%)

Howard: BU+160 (38%), SB+155 (39%)

                  PO+205 (33%)

 

Matt Riddle*     vs     Dan Cramer

Riddle: BU-165 (62%), SB-150 (60%)

               PO-140 (58%)

Cramer: BU+135 (43%), SB+120 (45%)

                 PO-140 (42%)

 

George Sotiropoulos^     vs     George Roop

Sotiropoulos: BU, SB

                             PO-350 (78%)

Roop: BU, SB

                    PO+350 (22%)

 

Jesse “The Ox” Lennox     vs     Danillo “Indio” Villefort

Lennox: BU+165 (38%), SB+150 (40%)

                  PO

Villefort: BU-210 (68%), SB-180 (64%)

                   PO

UFC 104: Machida vs Rua (10/24/2009)

Posted in Fight Cards with tags , , , , , , , on August 3, 2009 by Maxwell Destree

From: The Staples Center, Los Angeles CA

*Fights are rumored, not official, open to changes.

 

Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida     vs     Mauricio “Shogun” Rua

Shane Carwin     vs     Cain Velasquez

Yushin Okami     vs     Chael Sonnen

Anthony “Rumble” Johnson     vs     Yoshiyuki Yoshida

Ryan “Darth” Bader     vs     Eric “Red” Schafer

Chase Gormley     vs     Ben Rothwell

Rob Kimmons     vs     Jorge Rivera

Patrick “HD” Barry     vs     Antoni Hardonk

Razak Al-Hassan     vs     Kyle Kingsbury         

 

(Personal Note for Author: need to add fight names for some fighters.)

UFC 103: Franklin vs Belfort (09/19/09)

Posted in Fight Cards with tags , , , , , , , on August 3, 2009 by Maxwell Destree

From: American Airlines Center,  Tx

 

Rich “Ace” Franklin                     Vitor “Phenom” Belfort

Rich Franklin    vs   

Mirko “Cro Cop”     vs     Junior “Cigano” Dos Santos

Mike “Quick” Swick     vs     Martin “The Hitman” Kampmann

Josh “Ko’s” Koscheck     vs     Frank “Twinkle Toes” Trigg

Efrain “Hecho en Mexico” Escudero     vs     Cole “Magrinho” Miller

Tyson Griffin     vs     Hermes Franca

Drew “The Massacre” McFedries     vs     Tomasz “Gorilla” Drwal

UFC 100 (7/11/09) (Predictions)

Posted in Predictions with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on July 6, 2009 by Maxwell Destree

Note: The odds listed are from www.betus.com (BU) and www.sportsbook.com (SB), and my own personal opinion of what they should be (PO)(I am just trying this out, don’t be surprised if they’re way off to start with).  Also, I will break down the line into percentages for everyone.  The percentage tells how often they would win the fight.  P.S. I know the percentages don’t always add to 100, that’s because that’s the sportsbooks take, it’s just the way they do it.

My picks will be highlighted in bold.

 

Brock Lesnar                                   Frank Mir^

Brock Lesnar 2    vs    Frank Mir 2

Lesnar: BU-240 (71%), SB-215 (68%)    (07/06/09)

                 PO+130 (43%)

Mir: BU+190 (34%), SB+175 (36%)     (07/06/09)

          PO-150 (60%)

 Ok Ladies and Gentleman the rematch everyone has been waiting for and everyone is speculating about.  There really is no way to predict this one with any level of certainty.  Lesnar is a FREAK and when in the ring reminds me of a Bull on Speed in a China shop.  However, Mir does have a win over him, although some consider it controversial.  For the physical tools that Lesnar has, Mir has the same tools for pure MMA know-how.

My pick is for Mir, I have already bet a friend that Mir is going to win, although I shouldn’t have because I could have gotten better odds from Las Vegas.  Mir was a big underdog, but the odds have been slowly creeping down and are becoming more reasonable.  I think that a bet on Mir isn’t that foolish, I think that at this point in his career he is primed for a big upset victory to re-cement his place in UFC history.

Mir has the full arsenal of MMA tools at his disposal, and that’s why I have to pick him.  Lesnar is still learning the sport, and at this level pure Freakish ability still will only get one so far.  Mir can submit Lesnar on the ground, and Mir has better more technical standup.

I will admit that Lesnar still obviously has a very real chance and ability to just bull-rush and pummel Mir into submission or unconsciousness.

Ultimately the fight will end with Mir knocking Lesnar out, yup, you read it right, no need to re-read it, Mir by Knockout.

 

Georges “Rush” St.Pierre^            Thiago “PitBull” Alves

Georges St.Pierre 2    vs     Thiago Alves 3

St.Pierre: BU-300 (75%), SB-285 (74%)     (07/06/09)

                     PO-300 (75%)

Alves: BU+220 (31%), SB+225 (31%)     (07/06/09)

              PO+220 (31%)

 St.Pierre is possibly the best MMA fighter in the world.  Alves is no joke either, but he still seems a little too raw for someone on St.Pierres level.  Alves will definitely be a contender and possibly a future champ later in life, but its just too early for him.

St.Pierre is a fighter in the prime of his life.  St.Pierre in my opinion is the most pure athlete in all of MMA and he has too much ability for anyone at this point including Alves.  I expect that Alves will give us a good fight, and may even get St.Pierre in trouble, but I expect St.Pierres experience in the Octagon will pull him through.

I think this fight will probably go all five rounds, and I expect St.Pierre to win via Unanimous Decision.  Alves won’t be able to take St.Pierre down, yet St.Pierre will probably take Alves down to score points.  I think that St.Pierre will also be able to control the standup as well.  Finally though, how can anyone bet against St.Pierre at this stage in his career?

 

John Fitch*     vs     Paulo Thiago

Fitch: BU-450 (82%), SB-365 (78%)     (07/06/09)

             PO-350 (78%)

Thiago: BU+325 (24%), SB+285 (26%)          (07/06/09)

                 PO+310 (24%)

Thiago is going to be a good fight for Fitch who has been on a role in the UFC (except for the loss to GSP).  Thiago has won his last two fights by TKO (the only two TKOs of his eleven wins).  Thiagos specialty seems to be on the mat with the submission game.  Fitch is no stranger to the mat though, he is an ex-wrestler for Purdue University, although it will be interesting to see if Thiago can get Fitch on his back.  Thiago definitely has a chance to submit Fitch, but probably won’t knock him out.  Fitch has only been knocked out once in his twenty plus fights. 

Fitch will win by decision, possibly by knockout in the second round too.  I don’t think it would be an early or late knockout though.  Fitch is just too seasoned for Thiago.

 

Dan “Hendo” Henderson     vs     Michael “The Count” Bisping^$

Henderson: BU-225 (69%), SB-225 (69%)      (07/06/09)   

                        PO+165 (38%)

Bisping: BU+175 (36%), SB+185 (35%)     (07/06/09)

                 PO-185 (65%)

 Michael Bisping is complaining about the lack of respect that hes gotten from both fans and the media lately, and quite frankly I would have to agree with him.  Henderson was a great fighter, notice that I said was.  Henderson is still a very good fighter, but I think Father Time has caught up with him and he is no longer considered great, at least not in my book.

Bisping on the other hand is at a point where he is more athletic and quicker than Henderson.  Could the best ever Michael Bisping beat the best ever Dan Henderson?  Probably not, in fact most likely not, but can the Michael Bisping of today beat the Dan Henderson of today?  I think probably. 

I saw Hendersons last fight against Rich Franklin, and I was not impressed.  Both fighters looked slow and tentative.  Also, as I said earlier, Henderson is getting old.  I know that Randy Couture is old, but he is also fighting in a division where speed isn’t as much of a factor.  For a Middleweight its a combination of speed and power.  Henderson seems to have lost his speed, but still retains his power, supposedly even though we haven’t seen it in a while.

Bisping on the other hand looks very fast at Middleweight, but could admittedly probably use some more power.  I think that Bisping will be able to stuff most of Hendersons shots and keep the fight standing where he has an advantage.

I think Bisping wins this either by a late third round knockout, or decision.  I know Henderson has never been knocked out, but after taking two and a half rounds of punches he might give way.  Also, I think Henderson some times suffers from what many wrestlers appear to suffer from, and that’s trying to strike with a striker when they should be taking the striker down.

Bisping to win and take on Anderson Silva in England for the Middleweight belt where he will get his arse kicked.

 

Yoshihiro Akiyama*     vs     Alan “The Talent” Belcher

Akiyama: BU-300 (75%), SB-340 (77%)     (07/06/09)

                      PO-150 (60%)

Belcher: BU+220 (31%), SB+260 (28%)     (07/06/09)

                  PO+150 (40%)

This is Akiyamas first fight in the UFC, and he will be facing an opponent who has had eight fights in the UFC.  Akiyama has come to the UFC from Japan with much fanfare and is obviously the favorite for this fight.  I am personally not familiar with any of Akiyamas previous opponents but he has had quite a run of ending his fights in the first round.

Belcher is 5-3 in the Octagon with wins over Jorge Santiago, Kalib Starnes and Ed Herman.  His three losses are to Jason Day, Kendall Grove and Yushin Okami, with the exception of Day, not a bad couple of guys to lose to.  Belcher is still a very real threat to Akiyama although I just don’t think Belcher will have the mat skills to ward of Akiyama for too long.

I see Akiyama winning by either a late submission or by decision, possibly split, but most likely unanimous.

 

Mark “The Hammer” Coleman   vs   Stephan ” American Psycho” Bonnar^

Coleman: BU+250 (29%), SB+250 (29%)     (07/06/09)

                     PO+560 (18%)

Bonnar: BU-350 (78%), SB-325 (76%)     (07/06/09)

                  PO-550 (85%)

 I will keep this one quick, Coleman is too old.

Bonnar by knockout in the second round.

 

Jon “Bones” Jones*     vs     Jake “Irish” O’Brien

Jones: BU-450 (82%), SB-500 (83%)     (07/06/09)

              PO-410 (80%)

O’Brien: BU+325 (24%), SB+300 (25%)     (07/06/09)

                PO+325 (24%)

 Jones is a very athletic fighter, and very unorthodox.  Jones has had two fights in the UFC both wins by unanimous decisions.  The UFC is expecting big things from Jones who is only 21 years old and full of potential.  Jones is the clear favorite to win this fight.

O’Brien is no stranger to the Octagon in his own right.  He has had mixed results, but has faced decent competition.  Unfortunately for O’Brien I think the athleticism of Jones will be too much. 

I am going out on a limb here but I really think Jones is going to get an early victory, by knockout.

 

Dong “Stun Gun” Hyun Kim*     vs     TJ Grant

Hyun Kim: BU, SB

                       PO-300 (75%)

Grant: BU, SB

              PO+220 (31%)

 Dong Hyun Kim has had more fights in the UFC against better competition, and he has done pretty good.  I know that Kim is the favorite for this fight.  Grant has had one fight in the UFC and that was a controversial split decision win over Ryo Chonan.  Personally I never thought too much of Chonan, so I don’t give Grants victory over him much credit. 

Kim by submission in the first round.

 

Mac Danzig     vs     Jim Miller*

Danzig: BU+160 (38%), SB+160 (38%)     (07/06/09)

               PO+160 (38%)

Miller: BU-200 (67%), SB-200 (67%)     (07/06/09)

               PO-200 (67%)

 Well, one thing is for sure and that’s that Danzig is in desperate need of a win.  Danzig has had five fights in the UFC with a record of 2-3.  The one thing that Danzig has going for him is that he has fought some pretty good fighters.  He has losses to Josh Neer, Clay Guida, and Kurt Pellegrino and holds wins over Mark Bocek and Tommy Speer. 

Miller has yet to fight that level of competition.  Miller is 2-1 in the Octagon with wins over David Baron and Matt Wiman.  Miller lost his last fight which was against a very tough Gray Maynard.  Miller managed to go 3 grueling rounds with Maynard but lost by unanimous decision. 

Although Danzig has more experience, I don’t think he has the mentality or physical ability to improve much in the UFC.  Miller is still somewhat unproven although a win over Matt Wiman is a good start to proving ones self.  I just feel like Danzig is on his way out of the UFC while Miller is still developing as a fighter and a potential threat in the Lightweight division.

Miller by Unanimous Decision after three rounds of some very impressive grappling.

 

CB “The Doberman” Dollaway^     vs     Tom “Filthy” Lawlor

Dolloway: BU, SB

                     PO-120 (55%)

Lawlor: BU, SB

                PO+110 (48%)

 Both fighters are veterans from the Ultimate Fighter Tv Show, so I have seen both fighters fight.  Lawlor is good, probably better than most people give him credit for, but Dollaway although arrogant is the better fighter.  Dolloway despite losing in the finale of the show has gotten better over time, and truly seems to have what it takes to be a top tier MMA fighter. 

I don’t know exactly how the fight will go down, but I expect some good ground and pound from Dolloway and probably a unanimous or maybe split decision win for the Doberman.

 

Matt “The Real One” Grice     vs     Sannon Gugerty*

Grice: BU, SB

              PO+160 (38%)

Gugerty: BU, SB

                 PO-180 (64%)

Grice has had a rough go of it in the UFC, he has a 1-2 record.  His win comes by split-decision against Jason Black while his two losses are to Matt Veach and Terry Etim.  Etim is definitely a good fighter in the UFC and no slouch to have a loss to.  However, one would have to believe that with a Lightweight division as competitive as it is that Grice can’t afford any more losses.  Unfortunately his opponent is probably in the same boat. 

Gugerty has had two fights in the UFC with one win and one loss.  He beat Dale Hartt, but lost a tough fight with Spencer Fisher that went deep into the third round.  Being able to go deep into the third round with Spencer Fisher gets more respect in my book than two first round losses and a split decision win.

I think Gugerty takes this one in the second round by submission.

UFC 102 Couture vs Nogueira (8/29/09)

Posted in Fight Cards with tags , , , , , on July 6, 2009 by Maxwell Destree

Randy “The Natural” Couture     vs     Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira

Keith “The Dean of Mean” Jardine     vs     Thiago Silva

Chris “The Crippler” Leben     vs     Jake Rosholt

Nate “The Great” Marquardt     vs     Demian Maia

Krzysztof “The Polish Experiment” Soszynski     vs     Brandon “The Truth” Vera

Gabriel “Napao” Gonzaga     vs     Chris Tuchscherer

Wilson Gouveia     vs     James “The Sandman” Irvin

Mike Russo     vs     Justin “The Insane 1” McCully

Tim “The Thrashing Machine” Hague     vs     Todd Duffee

Nick Catone     vs     Mark “The Filipino Wrecking Machine” Munoz

Matt Veach     vs      Evan Dunham

UFC 99 – The Comeback (6/13/09) (Predictions)

Posted in Uncategorized with tags , , , , , , , , on June 10, 2009 by Maxwell Destree

Note: The odds listed are from www.betus.com (BU) and www.sportsbook.com (SB), and my own personal opinion of what they should be (PO)(I am just trying this out, don’t be surprised if they’re way off to start with).  Also, I will break down the line into percentages for everyone.  The percentage tells how often they would win the fight.  P.S. I know the percentages don’t always add to 100, that’s because thats the sportsbooks take, it’s just the way they do it.

 

Rich Franklin^$                                Wanderlei Silva

Rich Franklin     vs     Wanderlei Silva 2

Franklin: BU-155 (61%), SB-145 (59%)     (06/04/09)

                     PO-225(69%)

Silva: BU+115 (47%), SB+115 (47%)     (06/04/09)

              PO+205 (33%)

I think you would have to be out of your mind not to go with Franklin on this one.  Yeah, Franklin has had some tough fights lately, and the loss to Dan Henderson didn’t help, but remember he was a UFC Champ for a long time.  Franklin is still a top level talent despite losing to Anderson Silva twice and Henderson.  Franklins conditioning can match Wanderlei Silvas, and his striking is better.

Silva on the other hand has not impressed me at all since coming into the UFC.  Not only that, Silva has suffered some very vicious knockouts throughout his career the last of which came in his last fight against Quentin Jackson.  It is very hard for a fighter to recover mentally and physically after taking a vicious knockout, and Silva has had several.  I think that because of the effects that these knockouts are bound to have, Silva has lost speed and can’t take a punch like he use to.

I would anticipate Franklin knocking Silva out, probably in the second round, Franklin is smart and will feel Silva out before dialing in his range.  I think that the odds for this fight are way too close, I think Franklin wins this fight about 7 out of 10 times, great odds for a betting man.

 

Cain Velasquez     vs     Cheick Kongo^

Velasquez: SB-200 (67%)     (06/04/09)

                         PO-110 (52%)

Kongo: SB+160 (38%)     (06/04/09)

                 PO-110 (52%)

Boy, the UFC sure doesn’t make them easy to pick.  This is a great matchup, it will help give a better look at Heavyweight contendership.  I know that Cain is touted as the UFC Heavyweight to watch, but in the shadows of the division Cheick Kongo has slowly been making a name for himself. 

Kongo has had several nice wins in the UFC, and is currently on a three fight win streak.  Both of Kongos losses in the UFC have been by way of split decision.  I initially wasn’t impressed too much with Kongo and felt that he was over-rated.  However, I can no longer look past his record and his last three fights.  Kongo has looked very crisp with his striking, he has great timing, and seems determined to be a force at this division.

Cain is no slouch either, don’t get me wrong, he can still very easily win this fight.  I just feel that Kongo’s experience is going to carry him in this fight.  I don’t know how the winner will have won, knockout or decision but I can guess it won’t be by submission.  This should be a very fun fight to watch.

 

Mike Swick^$     vs     Ben Saunders

Swick: BU-225 (69%), SB-210 (68%)     (06/04/09)

               PO-300 (75%)

Saunders: BU+175 (36%), SB+170 (37%)     (06/04/09)

                      PO+280 (28%)

I know Saunders is good, perhaps very good, but Swick is better.  Swicks only loss of note in the UFC is to a very good fighter in Yushin Okami.  Since that loss Swick has dropped a weight class, and looks even quicker and more powerful than he did before.  Swick is lightning fast and has the MMA repitour to boot.  Saunders is going to be in for a long fight, or perhaps a very quick one.

Either way, I think Swick is a very good bet to win this fight.

                    

 Marcus Davis^$     vs     Dan Hardy

Davis: BU-225 (69%), SB-210 (68%)     (06/04/09)

               PO-320 (76%)

Hardy: BU+175 (36%), SB+170 (37%)     (06/04/09)

                PO+295 (25%)

Davis is going to knock Hardy out.  No if’s, and’s, or but’s about it.  Davis has faced much better competition, and has held his own.  Also, Hardy’s bread and butter is his striking, but Davis holds the winning hand when it comes to striking.  Davis was a professional and amateur boxer, so his hands are much more refined than Hardy’s.  Laslty, Hardy has been running his mouth saying Davis is a fake Irish man, so Davis really has incentive to shove his fist directly into Hardy’s pie hole.  Davis by knockout in the first round.

 

Spencer Fisher*     vs     Caol Uno

Fisher: BU-225 (69%), SB-210 (68%)     (06/04/09)

               PO-150 (60%)

Uno: BU+175 (36%), SB+170 (37%)    (06/04/09)

           PO+130 (43%)

 Well, here’s another tough one to pick.  Uno is very good on the mat, Fisher is good on his feet and OK on the mat.  If Fisher can keep the fight standing he wins, if Uno gets Fisher down there is a very good chance he wins.  Ultimately though I think that Fisher can neutralize enought of Uno’s game to get a decision victory.

 

Terry Etim*     vs     Justin Buchholz

Etim: BU-350 (78%), SB-500 (83%)     (06/04/09)

            PO-215 (68%)

Bucholz: BU+225 (31%), SB+300 (25%)      (06/04/09)

                   PO+190 (34%)

I have not had the opportunity to see either of these fighters fight, but I know Etim is pretty good.  He has more Octagon experience than Bucholz and I think that will come into play here.  For what its worth, Bucholz has a first round loss to Matt Wiman, and Wiman has a decision loss to Sam Stout who Etim beat.  By all accords Wiman probably won the fight, but if Wiman and Etim are at about the same level (which I think they are) then Etim will simply be the better fighter.

Etim victory by way of any means necessary.

 

Dennis Siver*     vs     Dale Hartt

Siver: BU-200 (67%), SB-200 (67%)     (06/04/09)

             PO-170 (63%)

Hartt: BU+150 (40%), SB+160 (38%)     (06/04/09)

              PO+160 (38)

 Siver has more experience.  I have never seen either fighter fight, but the general consensus among the “experts” is that Siver is the better fighter.

 

Paul Taylor*     vs     Peter Sobotta

Taylor: BU-500 (83%), SB-500 (83%)     (06/04/09)

                 PO-210 (68%)

Sobotta: BU+300 (25%), SB+300 (25%)     (06/04/09)

                   PO+220 (32%)

 Paul Taylor is a fun fighter to watch, but really hasn’t shown much in the UFC.  Taylor is a good fighter for anyone to fight entering the UFC.  Taylor is definately beatable, and Sobotta has a very, very good chance of achieving the upset victory.

Sobotta is from Germany, and that’s where this event is, so he’ll be fighting in front of a home crowd so to speak.  The only reason Taylor is picked to win is because of his experience in the UFC.  Taylor wins by decision.

(Note: I haven’t picked too many upset wins for this card, but this could very easily be one of them, I just can’t bring myself to pick Sobotta, but don’t anyone be surprised if Taylor does lose this fight.)

 

Paul Kelly*     vs     Rolando Delgado

Kelly: BU-550 (85%), SB-500 (83%)    (06/04/09)

             PO

Delgado: BU+325 (24%), SB+300 (25%)     (06/04/09)

                   PO

I’m going to wait on this prediction until after the weigh ins.

 

 Denis Stojnic*     vs     Stefan Struve

Stojnic: BU-110 (52%), SB-Even     (06/04/09)

                 PO-160 (62%)

Struve: BU-130 (57%), SB-130 (57%)     (06/04/09)

                PO+130 (43%)

Struve is too tall and lenky to be a real threat in the UFC.  Sruve is listed as 6’11” the only real athletes at this height are playing in the NBA, not fighting for the UFC. 

Stojnic isn’t the best bet, but I think he can take Struve.  Despite being much shorter at 5’11” he still weighs the same.  Both fighters have one fight in the UFC and both have a loss.  Both losses are to quality opponents in Cain Velasquez and Junior Dos Antos.

To help put this fight into perspective its like asking an NBA basketball player to fight linebacker in the NFL.  I would consider the linebacker to be a much more explosive athlete than an NBA player.  Although this example isn’t perfect because they’re both fighters in the same sport.  Genetically, Stojnic is going to be more agile even though he is overweight.  Stojnic by ground and pound or knockout.

 

Mustapha Al Turk     vs     Mirko Cro Cop*

Al Turk: BU+275 (27%), SB+350 (22%)     (06/04/09)

                  PO+300 (25%)

Cro Cop: BU-450 (82%), SB-550 (85%)     (06/04/09)

                   PO-430 (81%)

Man, talk about a question mark, Mirko “Cro Cop” is a human question mark. Will he show up to fight?  Will he be dissappointment again? No one can really tell.  What I do know is that if Mirko can fight like everyone knows he can he should easily win.  But, we’ll have to see who shows up.

Also, the UFC really wants Mirko to be a mainstay in the company, perhaps that setting one up for him to knock down if you get my drift.

 

John Hathaway*     vs     Rick Story

Hathaway: SB-150 (60%)     (06/04/09)

                         PO-120 (56%)

Story: SB+120 (45%)     (06/04/09)

              PO+120 (45%)

I’ve never seen either fighter fight before, this is Story’s first UFC appearance and Hathaways second.  Hathaway is probably a safe bet though.

The Ultimate Fighter Season 9 Episode 10: Pierce is Still a Lying Baby, Damarques “D” Defeats Osipczak

Posted in The Ultimate Fighter TV Show with tags , , , , , on June 4, 2009 by Maxwell Destree
Damarques Johnson makes it to the "TUF" finale in Las Vegas.

Damarques Johnson makes it to the "TUF" finale in Las Vegas.

Well, last week Frank Lester proved he has balls by becoming the first person in TUF history to get a second chance and win.  This week we get to find out the match-ups for the semi-finals, and we get our first semi-final match.

The show once again beats a dead horse by showing that Pierce is a punk.  Team UK and Team USA get together for a barbecue to celebrate the semi-finals.  Sometime during the night Team USA’s Richie Whitson hears Pierce  bad mouthing Team USA to a Team UK member.  Richie expresses his displeasure and dislike for Pierce.  Richie implies that Pierce backed out of his fight, while Pierce suggests he really wanted to fight.  In the end, the debate finishes with Pierce telling Richie to bump up a weight class so the two could fight.  Let me take a second here to give a word to the unwise (Pierce).  If you fought Richie you would be fighting a real fighter, and Richie would put you in more pain than you could ever believe.

Anyways, the match-ups are made.  Team UK will Fight Team USA in the semi-finals much to the delight of the coaches.  Dana White had tossed around the idea of pitting teammate against teammate, but ultimately decided against it.  The match-ups are as follows: Andre Winner (UK) vs Cameron Dollar (USA), Ross Pearson (UK) vs Jason Dent (USA), Nick  Osipczak (UK) vs Damarques Johnson (USA), and James Wilks (UK) vs Frank Lester (USA) (Note: this is a rematch between these two fighters in which Wilks won the first match by knocking Lesters front four teeth out.)

Team UK”S strategy is for Nick to keep the fight standing, they worked extensively with Nick on his takedown defense.  The strategy for Damarques is simple, win.  Damarques feels that he’s the better fighter and that he could win this fight in any number of ways.

At exactly half-way through the show, we’re into the fight.  Semi-final fights are scheduled for three five minute rounds, and this fight would need all fifteen minutes.  The first round started fairly even with the striking initially going to Damarques although Nick was landing some real nice leg kicks.  At one point Damarques was able to take Nick down, but about half a minute before the bell Nick was able to get back to his feet.  Nick immediately hurt Damarques with a flurry and tried to pour it on at the end of the round.  But, with about ten seconds left Damarques started fighting back, and the round ended with the two fighters standing toe-to-toe slugging it out.

Unfortunately, the second round would not have the same fireworks that the first round had.  Damarques got an early takedown, and controlled Nick on the ground from then on.  Nick to his credit went for some early submissions but could never quite get there.  Nick took a pretty good beating to finish the round, taking blows from Damarques who was in the full mount position.  It appeared that if the round had gone any longer referee Herb Dean would have stepped in and stopped it.

The third round started with both fighters noticeably fatigued.  Both Nick and Damarques deserve tons of credit despite being obviously exhausted they both gave it there all in the hopes of getting one step closer to their dreams.  Damarques was the better man tonight though, controlling the standup and eventually taking Nick down to the mat.  Again, to Nicks credit he never gave up despite being behind on the scorecards and needing a knockout. Nick was able to reverse Damarques who had his back and found himself in Damarques’ guard with only half a minute to go in the fight.  The third round finished with both fighters throwing rubbery punches at one another with Nick in Damarques’ guard.

Damarques won the fight, and put one Team USA member in the semi’s.  Next week they will show both lightweight semi-final fights.  To my surprise the preview showed Dent slugging it out with Ross Pearson.  Will Team UK be able to rebound next week, or will Team USA continue their winning ways?  Only time will tell, until next week MMAniacs.

The Ultimate Fighter Season 9 Episode 9:Who Fights Faulkner? and Bisping Shows a Lack of Class in Front of His Students

Posted in The Ultimate Fighter TV Show with tags , , , , , , , , on May 29, 2009 by Maxwell Destree

Alright Ultimate Fighter fans, this was a much better episode than last weeks, perhaps it’s because the show is more focused on two guys that are actually willing to fight…kinda.

Last episode left us all trying to guess who was going to step up from the already-beatens and take on David Faulkner in a second chance of a lifetime fight?  The answer, Frank Lester.  Lester bless your heart you are a true warrior.  For those of us who have forgotten Lester was the fighter who lost his front four teeth and took a beating just two episodes ago (only a couple of days prior in actual time).  Mark Miller the other alternative had a broken nose, and was not cleared to fight.

Lester tells Dana White (President of the UFC) that he is willing to fight, and so what if he’s missing teeth, after all there only teeth right?  And Dan Henderson fights without his teeth all the time, right?  Dana loved the heart and attitude shown by Lester here, in his willingness to step back in the octagon after just a couple days removed from getting a pretty good beating.

The show eventually shifts to Faulkner who has all the physical tools, but lacks the mental toughness to be a real threat.  Apparently Faulkner is a professional fighter who can’t seem to keep his mouth-guard in his mouth due to his gag-reflex.  He has such a hard time keeping his mouthpiece in that he actually goes to a hypnotist to try to fix the problem through hypnosis.

Later on in the show Bisping sprayed water in Damarques Johnsons face for a “racist” comment that Johnson didn’t even say.  Cameron Dollar a couple of episodes ago (while Bisping was playing Henderson at tennis) said that Bisping was “whiter than a band-aid”?  Whatever the hell that’s suppose to mean.  But, nonetheless Bisping took offense and thought that Johnson was the one who had said it.  Bisping went to apologize to Johnson who had stormed out of the building after being squirted, and after approaching Johnson who told Bisping he needed a minute, Bisping returned like a little “puff”.  It appeared that Bisping was actually upset at Johnson for not letting him apologize right away.

The point is that Bisping was not shown in a very positive light after this event, and I am going to find it very difficult to cheer for him at all.

As far as strategy goes for the fight Henderson wants Lester to just throw a straight one-two combo, that’s it.  Bisping seems to just want Faulkner to keep his mouth-guard in.

Both fighters come out for round one, and Faulkner looks to be the aggressor, and looks much more fresh than Lester.  Faulkner connects on a couple of nice punches, and even scores a takedown.  Faulkner wins round one easily.

The bell rings for round two, and Lester comes out and is able to keep the fight standing and controls Faulkner in the clinch.  Lester also connects on some nice punches none of which are the straight one-tow combo that Henderson wanted him to throw.  During the second round Faulkner is noticeably fatigued, and at one point spit out his mouthpiece, Lester walks away winning round two.

With both fighters each winning a round that means only one thing right?  A sudden death one round battle, winner takes the victory.  But wait, whats this, Faulkners throat is too dry?  Faulkner quits while sitting on his stool between rounds?  Faulkner came on this show taking the opportunity away from all of his fellow countrymen that wanted to be on the Ultimate Fighter and then lets his country down by quitting?  Faulkner, a professional fighter can’t go three rounds?  Well believe it folks it happened, Faulkner did not come out for the third round.  As one person put it Lester out-hearted Faulkner.

Well this ties things up, both teams are now 4-4 and the teaser for next week has us guessing if teammates are going to have to fight teammates.  Until next time, keep reading.

UFC 98 Results

Posted in Results with tags , , , , , , , , , , on May 24, 2009 by Maxwell Destree

We Have A New Champ! Hughes Survives Head-butt and Controversy and Upsets Mark UFC 98.

 

First, I would like to say to all of my readers, I actually had on OK night for predictions.  But, the prediction I blew was the Machida/Evans fight.  I really thought that Evans had the style to beat Machida.  Don’t worry though, I have no false reservations about my picks or the results, and I am ready to eat a big huge serving of CROW served up by Machida himself.

Lyoto Machida celebrates after becoming the Light Heavyweight Campion in the UFC

Lyoto Machida celebrates after becoming the Light Heavyweight Campion in the UFC

Rashad Evans     vs     Lyoto Machida

Rashad: BU+175 (36%), SB+165 (38%)  (5/13/09)

                   BU+150 (40%), SB+160 (38%)  (5/21/09)

Machida: BU-225 (69%), SB-205 (67%)  (5/13/09)

                     BU-200 (66%), SB-200 (66%)  (5/21/09)

Machida wins by knockout in the second round.

Machida was the favorite for this fight and with good reason.  Machida came out, waited patiently for a while for the Champ to engage, and then decided to formulate a little offense of his own.  Machida had a couple of very nice kicks in the first round and continued his record of never losing a round in the UFC by winning the first round.

Machida came out the second round and waited like a time bomb for the right opportunity to take Evans out.  Evans was taken down by Machida at one point but stood right back up.  Evans really only landed one nice body kick the whole fight.  About three minutes into the second round Machida put on a flurry and caught Evans with several clean blows to the jaw, but ultimately connected with a short left cross to put the Champ to sleep.

I had stated that Machida would not be able to knock Evans out, I was wrong, one serving of crow from Mr. Machida.  Oh, thank you Mr. Machida can I have some more?  I also said that Evans was going to be fast enough and athletic enough to catch Machida but, I was wrong.  Oh why Mr. Machida some more crow?  Thank you, you shouldn’t have Mr. Machida.  I also picked Evans to beat Machida by knockout, but I was wrong.  Oh, a third serving of crow? Why thank you Mr. Machida, oh, look its the biggest serving yet.

Ok, basically I expected Evans to come out and try and take Machida down at least once or twice before standing with Machida.  I thought Evans would want to keep Machida guessing as to what to defend: strikes or takedown.  Unfortunately, Evans didn’t attempt a single takedown.  I also anticipated a lot of level changing and long combinations from Evans to try and close the gap on Machida and get in close.  Evans decided that his bast chance of winning was to stay on the outside and wait for Machida to come in. 

I am not claiming to be a wiz kid when it comes to MMA or fighting, and I am certainly not any more knowledgeable than Greg Jackson (Evans trainer) when it comes to creating a gameplan, but I just felt like with the athleticism and wrestling background that Evans has, he had a real opportunity to take it to Machida.  To Machida’s credit, he has made it very difficult to figure out his style.  One can’t plot slowly in, looking for the big knockout like Thiago Silva did.  But, one can’t stay back and try and keep distance on Machida either.  Machida is too accurate of a striker and distance is Machidas advantage.

I overestimated Evans ability to close the gap on Machida, and I underestimated Machidas power and elusiveness.  I give all the credit to Machida, he fought a superb fight and won in a very convincing fashion.  I anticipate Machida holding onto this belt for some time to come.  Oh, OK, one more serving of crow for me just for good measure.

  

Matt Hughes     vs     Matt Serra

Hughes: BU-275 (73%), SB-290 (74%)  (5/13/09)

                   BU-275 (73%), SB-275 (73%)  (5/21/09)

Serra: BU+190(34%)  SB+230 (30%)  (5/13/09)

              BU+190 (34%) SB+215 (31%)  (5/21/09)

Hughes wins by unanimous decision after three rounds.

Well, I got this one right, despite near upset loss in the first round from a headbutt.  Serra and Hughes accidentally knocked heads in the very beginning of the first round, causing Hughes to basically get knocked out while standing, fortunately Serra couldn’t finish him.  Serra won the first round with pressure and strikes.

Hughes won the second and third round with superior wrestling and takedowns.  It was definitely a close fight, and the judges easily could have had a split decision.  In the end though it was a unanimous decision victory for Hughes.

 Just a quick note on Hughes.  Hughes to me looked a little slow and apprehensive on his feet.  I hope Hughes doesn’t fight anymore because I know he will fight a ranked competitor, and I think he will lose.  Hughes’ skills just aren’t well rounded enough to hang with the top of the division anymore.

Drew McFedries     vs     Xavier Foupa-Pokam

McFedries: SB+160 (38%)  (5/21/09)

Foupa-Pokam: SB-200 (66%)  (5/21/09)

McFedries wins by knockout in the first round.

Well, I kinda went back and forth with this fight, like I did for most of the fights on this card.  However, when I thought about it, it sounded like Foupa-Pokam wanted to stand with McFedries and that is never a good gameplan.  McFedries proved his power by blasting Foupa-Pokam several times before the ref stepped in to stop it.

 

Brock Larson     vs     Mike Pyle

Larson: SB-290 (74%)  (5/21/09)

Pyle:

Larson wins by submission in the first round.

Man o’ man, Pyle really brought it.  Pyle went for several very nice, and very close submission attempts of his own right away in the first round.  The two fighters had a very quick and smart grappling match on the mat before Larson was able to come away with the submission victory.

 

Dan Miller    vs     Chael Sonnen

Sonnen: SB+125 (44%)  (5/21/09)

Miller: SB-155 (61%)  (5/21/09)

Sonnen wins by unanimous decision after three rounds.

Well, I have a little more crow on my plate after this one.  I knew Sonnen was the better wrestler, but I thought Miller would be able to keep the fight standing where he is better on his feet.  Sonnen was able to take Miller down with relative ease, and proceeded to ground and pound Miller for three rounds.  I was surprised that Miller wasn’t more effective from his guard. 

I’m really not too disappointed with this pick, it was a fight to see where Miller ranks in the UFC, Sonnen was a good test and Miller just wasn’t up to the challenge. 

 

Sean Sherk     vs     Frank Edgar

Sherk: BU-275 (73%) SB-295 (74%)  (5/13/09)

               BU-300 (75%) SB-365 (78%)  (5/21/09)

Edgar: BU+190 (34%) SB+235(30%)  (5/13/09)

                BU+200 (33%) SB+285 (26%)  (5/21/09)

Edgar wins by unanimous decision after three rounds.

Edgar had the better boxing skills  for this fight.  Edgar moved around well, and had real crisp strikes.  I knew Edgar could win this fight if it stayed standing, the only problem was I thought Sherk would at least go for a couple of takedowns, and score some points on the judges scorecard.  This fight is a frustrating loss, because Sherk has the ability to win the fight consistently by simply taking Edgar down (which he would be able to do) and ground and pounding him.  However, Sherk chose to stand and lose two straight rounds before trying something else.  My fear was realized, Sherk was more concerned about winning by knockout/strikes than he was about just winning.

Nonetheless, I thought it could have been a split decision, and with the odds where they were, it really was hard not to throw some money down on Edgar.  Another fight that was tough to predict.

 

Pat Barry     vs     Tim Hague

Barry: BU-350 (77%) (5/13/09)

               BU-330 (77%) SB-500 (83%)  (5/21/09)

Hague: BU+225 (31%)  (5/13/09)

                 BU+220 (31%) SB+300 (25%)  (5/21/09)

Hague wins by submission in the first round.

Well, if anyone read my predictions, they would know that I really didn’t want to chose this one.  I just had a hard time seeing why Barry was such a favorite. Although he was very close to knocking out Hague in the beginning of the first round.  But, Hague kept his wits about him, took Barry down and submitted him.

Another lose on my record, but yet another one that I can live with.

 

Phillipe Nover     vs     Kyle Bradley

Nover: BU-400 (80%) SB-365 (78%)  (5/13/09)

                BU-330 (77%) SB-500 (83%)  (5/21/09)

Bradley: BU+250 (29%) SB+285 (26%)  (5/13/09)

                   BU+220 (31%) SB+300 (25%)  (5/21/09)

Bradley wins by referee stoppage in the first round.

I didn’t see this fight, but apparently referee Yves Lavigne had a very, very poor stoppage of the fight.  He stopped the fight but Nover was never hurt.  Which makes it worse for Lavigne is that apparently replay shows that it was indeed a very poor stoppage.

Another loss for me, but it sounds like it wasn’t a very legit fight, so once again this one doesn’t bother me. (Other than poor refereeing).

 

Krzysztof Soszynski   vs     Andre Gusmao

Soszynski: SB+125 (44%)  (5/21/09)

Gusmao: SB-155 (61%)  (5/21/09)

Soszynski wins by knockout in the first round.

Gusmao came out strong, and really looked to be the better fighter for the first part of the fight.  However, Soszynski caught Gusmao right on the chin with a real short and crisp right hand.  Once again, Gusmao is a good fighter, and better than what he has shown in his first two fights in the UFC.  Soszynski is hot right now, he has confidence, looks healhty, has a well rounded fight game, I would hate to be Soszynskis next opponent.

Back in the win column for me.

  

Dave Kaplan     vs     George Roop

Kaplan: BU+110 (48%)  (5/13/09)

                 BU+110 (48%) SB+135 (43%)  (5/21/09)

Roop: BU-150 (60%)  (5/13/09)

              BU-150 (60%) SB-165 (62%)  (5/21/09)

Roop wins by split decision after three rounds.

Well, I really thought that Roop would have had an easier time with Kaplan.  Roop still got the win, but I have to give Kaplan a lot of credit, he fought hard and showed some real heart.

Roop got me a win here, barely, but I will take it.

 

My prediction results and data for UFC 98:

 My Record: 6/11                                                

Money Picks: 3/4

Favorites Record: 4/11 (amazing, there were a lot of upsets for this one)

I picked the favorite to win 7/11

 

Running Totals Updated

My Record: 16/23  70%

Money Picks:  7/9 78%

Favorites Record (since UFC 97): 11/23  48%

UFC 98: Evans vs Machida (5/23/09) (Predictions)

Posted in Predictions with tags , , , , , , , , , on May 15, 2009 by Maxwell Destree

Note: The odds listed are from www.betus.com (BU) and www.sportsbook.com (SB), they were listed as of 5/21/09.  Also, I will break down the line into percentages for everyone.  The percentage tells how often they would win the fight.  P.S. I know the percentages don’t always add to 100, that’s because thats the sportsbooks take, it’s just the way they do it.

 

Rashad Evans^$                               Lyoto Machida

rashad-evans1      vs       lyoto-machida

Rashad: BU+175 (36%), SB+165 (38%)  (5/13/09)

                   BU+150 (40%), SB+160 (38%)  (5/21/09)

Machida: BU-225 (69%), SB-205 (67%)  (5/13/09)

                     BU-200 (66%), SB-200 (66%)  (5/21/09)

 First, I apologize for not having this piece posted sooner, but hopefully a week before the fight works.  I believe and am willing to put money on Rashad Evans winning this fight.  There are several factors that brought me to this conclusion, some of which are speed, athleticism, and style.

I think that Evans has the perfect style and pedigree to beat the undefeated Machida.  I know that Machida has won every fight so far in the UFC, and that he has never lost a round in the UFC, but all good things must come to an end, and Machidas good win streak is going to end sooner than Evans.

Rashad was a division one wrestler for Michigan State University before he started in MMA.  I think it is safe to say that Evans is a better wrestler than Machida.  Also, I think that Evans is a better athlete in general, and quicker too.  Evans is in my opinion the quickest Light-heavyweight in the division.  I would expect Rashad to be able to cut off the angle, use his quick shot on Machida and take Machida down.  Machida has very good footwork, but isn’t as quick as Rashad.  In order for Rashad to win this fight he needs to take Machida down, and ground and pound him a little, rattle his cage a little bit.  It will not only score points on the judges score cards, but it will test Machidas resolve, which has never really been tested yet.  We still don’t know if Machida can take a good shot, or how tough he really is.

Machida likes to use his footwork and karate style to win his matches.  Machidas a counter-striker who prides himself on hitting without getting hit.  But, I don’t think Machida will knock Evans out.  Evans fought in the heavyweight division on the Ultimate Fighter tv show, and during that show he took some pretty clean shots from heavyweights and was never knocked out. 

 Basically, Machida isn’t going to knock out Evans which is probably the best way for him to win.  Evans is going to be quick enough to close the distance and take Machida down, look for Evans to take Machida down more than Machidataking Evans down.  Evans has a good wrestling background, and good ground and pound.  Evans is going to be able to control where the fight takes place, because Machida won’t be athletic enough to take Rashad down and score points.  Evans is going to either knockout Machida on the ground or possibly standing (Evans has very good punching power), or the fight will go to decision which Rashad will win because of the points he’ll score with his takedowns.

Lastly, lets not forget Rashad has never lost in the UFC either.  Yeah, he has had a lot of close calls (a draw and a couple of split-decisions) but Rashad has improved as a fighter every single time he has fought in the octagon.  If Rashad we’re to go back and re-fight those opponents now, I think he would fair much better.  Rashad has been in many close fights and he always comes out on top, the man knows how to win, the guy is simply a winner.

MONEY BET ($)

With Rashad being a Las Vegas underdog, and the reasons I explained above, how could one not want to bet on this.  Either way Evans is getting slighted by the odds.  I could see Evans being like +120 but +175? come on, gotta take those odds.

 

Added 5/21/09

I am still going with Evans,here are some keys to victory.

1. Don’t fall behind the judges scorecard early.  If Evans can keep the fight close and win the first and/or second rounds he might make Machida sweat a little. 

2.  Evans needs to be able to take Machida down, he doesn’t even have to control Machida on the ground, just score takedowns thereby scoring points on the judges scorecard.

3.  Don’t get over anxious.  Machida is a master at moving out of the way and disengaging and countering.  Evans has to keep his cool and stick to his gameplan especially in the first part of the fight.

4.  Don’t go straight in.  Thiago Siva showed us all what happens to a fighter who plots straight ahead towards Machida.  For those of us who don’t know what happend Silva got his face knocked off.  Evans needs to throw combinations, and change levels frequently, keep Machida guessing.

5.  Keep the pressure on Machida.  Evans is a superior athlete and wrestler than Machida, if he can close the distance and tie up Machida, he stands a real good chance of making Machida worry.  We have yet to see Machida in real trouble because no one has been able to keep constant pressure on him.

Evans is more than capable of following this gameplan.  As I stated earlier, Evans is going to be too fast, and to good of a wrestler for Machida to stay away from.  Evans, if your listening, win this one and show the MMA world you’re no joke.

 

Matt Hughes^$     vs     Matt Serra

Hughes: BU-275 (73%), SB-290 (74%)  (5/13/09)

                   BU-275 (73%), SB-275 (73%)  (5/21/09)

Serra: BU+190(34%)  SB+230 (30%)  (5/13/09)

              BU+190 (34%) SB+215 (31%)  (5/21/09)

Hughes is a pretty good lock for this fight.  Both fighters are about the same age, so both of their primes (which have passed) were around the same time.  In Hughes’ prime he was champ and virtually unbeatable.  Serra was always a pretty good fighter, but was never at the same level as Hughes.

Don’t count Serra out though, he did beat Georges St.Pierre as a huge underdog.  Serra does have heart, and he will show up to fight.  With that said though, Hughes has heart, and I know Hughes is looking forward to this fight too. 

Basically the best Matt Serra wouldn’t usually beat the best Matt Hughes.  Hughes for the win, either by good ol’ fashioned ground and pound, or submission.  Yeah, I know Serra is a BJJ (Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu) Black belt, but Hughes has some pretty good BJJ too.  Hughes might over-power or daze Serra and then slap a submission on him.  Go Hughes.

MONEY BET ($)

I think Hughes wins this fight about 75% of the time too, the odds are reasonable.

 

Added 5/21/09

Still happy with this pick.

 

Drew McFedries*     vs     Xavier Foupa-Pokam

McFedries: SB+160 (38%)  (5/21/09)

Foupa-Pokam: SB-200 (66%)  (5/21/09)

Well, I don’t really know who to go with on this one.  Las Vegas odds haven’t been released yet, but I think McFedries will be the slight favorite.  He has more experience in the UFC, with a couple of wins and some losses.  The losses have come to some very competitive opponents, and his wins have come against some OK opponents.  I don’t know if Xavier is a good or OK opponent, but he did lose his UFC debut by decision.  I expect McFedries to win.

 

Added 5/21/09

Well, I was wrong, McFedries is the underdog in this one but a substantial margin.  Apparently MdFedries is absolutely atrocious on the ground, but has one punch knockout power.  Foupa-Pokham on the other hand is slightly more versed on the ground, quicker and a good striker himself.  McFedries always has that punchers chance though, and he has lost his last two fights in the UFC, so is he due or not? Thats the real question.  I’m going to change this pick and goFoupa-Pokham by submission.

 

Updated 5/22/09

OK readers, I hate to do this to you, but I have been struggling with this match ever since it was released.  I slept on it, and my gut is telling me to stay with McFedries, my initial pick.  So, one day before fight time, I am going to switch this pick back to McFedries who will win by knockout.  I think yesterday I was just surprised to see him come out as the underdog, but I am ok with it.  Go McFedries.

 

Brock Larson*     vs     Mike Pyle

Larson: SB-290 (74%)  (5/21/09)

Pyle:

I saw Chris Wilsons last fight against John Howard which he lost by split decision.  However, I wasn’t too impressed.  I haven’t seen Larson fight, but everything I read is very positive.  Two of his losses have come to quality opponents (I don’t know who is first loss was to) in Carlos Condit, and John Fitch.  Wilson also has a loss to John Fitch, and I think that Wilson would probably lose to Condit too.

My pick is for Larson, but don’t ask me how or when, this could go to decision, be a submission, or even a knockout.

 

Added 5/21/09

Still sounds good to me.

 

Added 5/23/09

Well Mike Pyle has replaced Chris Wilson as of Friday 5/23/09.  My pick is still for Larson, however I don’t really know very much about Pyle. 

 

Dan Miller*    vs     Chael Sonnen

Sonnen: SB+125 (44%)  (5/21/09)

Miller: SB-155 (61%)  (5/21/09)

Another tough fight to pick.  I haven’t seen either one fight yet, but I think Sonnen might have the edge.  Miller is a tough and good up and coming fighter in the UFC, but has yet to fight any real talent in the UFC.  Sonnen on the other hand has more experience, and has faced some better competition than Miller.  This is really a good test for Miller Sonnen is a fighter from the next level up, but I don’t know if Miller is ready or capable of moving up a level.  Las Vegas odds will favor Sonnen I think, but this fight is a good measuring stick for Miller more than Sonnen.  Expect Miller to bring it, and achieve a possible upset.

 

Added 5/21/09

Well, I was wrong, Miller is the favorite for the fight.  Also, I have seen a Sonnen fight now, I saw where he fought Paulo Filho.  He did win the fight, but in less than spectacular fashion.  He is a good wrestler, but his standup is lacking.  Sonnen is still going to be a tough test for Miller, and yes, I am going to change my pick.  I was not impresed with the Filho fight, and I expect Miller being more than capable of taking Sonnen down.

Sean Sherk*     vs     Frank Edgar

Sherk: BU-275 (73%) SB-295 (74%)  (5/13/09)

               BU-300 (75%) SB-365 (78%)  (5/21/09)

Edgar: BU+190 (34%) SB+235(30%)  (5/13/09)

                BU+200 (33%) SB+285 (26%)  (5/21/09)

Sherk has great wrestling, but I have yet to see much more than that.  He enjoys ground and pound, but like some wrestlers I think he feels he needs to get that big knockout under his belt.  Sherk has been working his boxing, and it’s pretty good, but he has yet to finish anybody with it, so as of right now, I don’t think too much of it. 

The two both have wins over Tyson Griffin, and Hermes Franca by decision.  Sherk has losses to Matt Hughes, BJ Penn and Georges St.Pierre all of whom are of the highest level.  Edgars only loss has come to Gray Maynard, who many feel could be competing for the lightweight title in the future. 

I think that experience is whats going to win this fight, and Sherk simply has more of it.  I am willing to bet this will be mostly fought on the mat, and that it will go to decision.  However, with that said these may be two ex-wrestlers who want to prove themselves on their feet, so there is a slight chance it might stay standing. Look for Sherk to win, possibly even by Split-decision, I think it will be that close.

 

Added 5/21/09

Well, Sherk is climbing as a favorite.  Sherk is and should be the favorite, but I just don’t see him being that clear cut of one.  This could definatley be a good fight to throw down a couple dollars on Edgar for an upset.

 

Pat Barry     vs     Tim Hague

Barry: BU-350 (77%) (5/13/09)

               BU-330 (77%) SB-500 (83%)  (5/21/09)

Hague: BU+225 (31%)  (5/13/09)

                 BU+220 (31%) SB+300 (25%)  (5/21/09)

I haven’t had the opportunity to see either of these guys fight, but I will go with Vegas on this one.  Barry has a win in his only UFC appearance, against Dan Evensen, while Hague has yet to fight in the octagon.  Hague’s measureables that they have on his bio on the UFC website are impressive to read.  He is 6’4” and weighs 265, while Barry is 5’11” at 235.  Barry is 4-0 while Hague is 9-1.  By reading these stats, one might think Hague should be the favorite.  Barry is from the US and Hague is from Canada, maybe he is getting that foreign fighter disrespect, and maybe just isn’t as popular as Hague in the US so he’s the underdog.  I guess Vegas knows something I don’t though.  I am not picking this one yet, I want to see the weigh-ins.

 

Added 5/21/09

Man, Barry is a heavy favorite in this fight still.  I haven’t seen either one ever fight, and with the shear size advantage of Hague its still hard to believe Barry can be such a favorite.  I read an article that said that Barry although small has speed and power like (not the same as) Mike Tyson had.  Barry has very good punching power for the division.  I’m still gonna wait for the weigh ins.

 

Added 5/23/09

Ok, because I have to make a pick I will go with Barry, apparently he has very good leg kicks and will be able to chop the taller Hague down.  Hague has said that he plans to slug it out with Barry, and that’s Barry’s specialty.  Barry by knockout.

 

Phillipe Nover*     vs     Kyle Bradley

Nover: BU-400 (80%) SB-365 (78%)  (5/13/09)

                BU-330 (77%) SB-500 (83%)  (5/21/09)

Bradley: BU+250 (29%) SB+285 (26%)  (5/13/09)

                   BU+220 (31%) SB+300 (25%)  (5/21/09)

Well, one sportsbook has Nover as an extreme favorite, another has it closer.  Nover is definitely the favorite, but probably not by as much as everyone thinks. 

Nover was featured on The Ultimate Fighter tv show, and Dana White (the President of the UFC) made a very flattering comparison between Nover and Georges St.Pierre.  I think this has created over-hype for Nover.  Nover is a good fighter, no doubt about it, but he did lose in the finale of the show. 

Bradley has lost his only two UFC fights, but they were to two very respectable opponents in Chris Lytle, and Joe Lauzon.  I think Nover would lose to both of these fighters as well.  This fight is definitely a good litmus test for Nover.

I think Nover will still get the win, but I would say he wins about 60-65% of the time in this fight.  Also, I believe the UFC wants Nover to win, so they gave him a matchup that he should win.

 

Added 5/21/09

Well, Nover went up in one sportsbook and down in the other.  Perhaps Nover does win this fight more than 60-65% of the time, but no more than 70%.  I still think the sportsbooks have him rated too highly.  But, he will still win this fight.

 

 

 

Krzysztof Soszynski*$   vs     Andre Gusmao

Soszynski: SB+125 (44%)  (5/21/09)

Gusmao: SB-155 (61%)  (5/21/09)

 I am going to refer to Soszynski as KS his name is too big of a pain in the you know what to spell.  KS is going to win this one.  KS is a very good fighter, and has gotten better since coming off the Ultimate Fighter TV show.  He lost during the show, but my understanding is that he was hurt.  KS has since then had two very impressive performances in the UFC.  KS has fought very recently though, but he did not take much punishment (if any) and unless there was an injury that we don’t know about he should  be in good health.

Gusmao lost in his UFC debut, but I bet he is a better fighter than some might give him credit for.  His loss came to a very athletic and exciting fighter in Jon Jones.  I know Gusmao is looking to get things on the right track in the UFC, and KS is a good test for that.  Gusmao definitely has a good chance against KS.  However, KS has just been on fire lately and I just don’t see Gusmao taking it.

 

Below was Added 5/21/09

I wrote the upper part before the odds were released, Guamao is actually the favorite to win this fight.  I still stick by what I have written though, I think that KS will still win, and with him being the underdog this has now turned into a $bet.  GO KS.

 

Dave Kaplan     vs     George Roop^$

Kaplan: BU+110 (48%)  (5/13/09)

                 BU+110 (48%) SB+135 (43%)  (5/21/09)

Roop: BU-150 (60%)  (5/13/09)

              BU-150 (60%) SB-165 (62%)  (5/21/09)

Both of these fighters were on the Ultimate Fighter TV show, Roop was surprisingly resilient, while Kaplan was surprisingly over-confident.  Roop has a long frame and if he has developed since the show should beat Kaplan by decision.  Roop doesn’t have any knockout power, and I don’t recall how good his ground game is.  Kaplan however thinks he has an iron chin, and he wants to go out there and bang.  Also, Kaplan is very short for the division and really should be fighting as at 145lbs.  I look for Roop to use his reach, and take Kaplan down and get the W in less than spectacular fashion.

MONEY BET ($)

I think this is a good bet, personally I see Roop winning this fight about 65-70% of the time.  With the odds given, I would bet on Roop.