Archive for Ultimate Fighting Championship

UFC 101(08/08/09) (Predictions)

Posted in Predictions with tags , , , , , , , , , , on August 3, 2009 by Maxwell Destree

BJ Penn                                            Kenny Florian^$

BJ Penn    vs    Kenny Florian

Penn: BU-230 (70%), SB-260 (72%)

            PO+150 (40%)

Florian: BU+180 (36%), SB+200 (33%)

                PO-150 (60%)

 

Anderson “The Spider” Silva^     vs     Forrest Griffin

Silva: BU-350 (78%), SB-350 (78%)

            PO-260 (72%)

Griffin: BU+250 (29%), SB+275 (27%)

              PO+260 (28%)

 

Amir Sadollah     vs     Johny Hendricks

Sadollah: BU-130 (56%), SB-115 (53%)

                  PO: Even

Hendricks: BU: Even (50%), SB-115 (53%)

                       PO: Even

 

Kendall “Da Spyder” Grove     vs     Ricardo “Big Dog” Almeida

Grove: BU+135 (43%), SB+120 (45%)

              PO-120 (54%)

Almeida: BU-165 (62%), SB-150 (60%)

                   PO+125 (46%)

 

Josh “The Dentist” Neer     vs     Kurt “Batman” Pellegrino^$

Neer: BU-220 (69%), SB-215 (68%)

            PO-160 (62%)

Pellegrino: BU+175 (36%), SB+175 (36%)

                       PO+160 (38%)

 

 Thales Leites     vs     Alessio “Legionarius” Sakara

Leites: BU-350 (78%), SB-325 (76%)

              PO-350 (78%)

Sakara: BU+250 (29%), SB+250 (29%)

                PO+350 (22%)

 

Shane “Sugar” Nelson     vs     Aaron Riley

Nelson: BU+130 (43%), SB+120 (45%)

                 PO-130 (56%)

Riley: BU-160 (62%), SB-150 (60%)

             PO+125 (44%)

 

Tamdan “The Barn Cat” McCrory*     vs     John “Doomsday” Howard

McCrory: BU-200 (67%), SB-185 (65%)

                    PO-200 (67%)

Howard: BU+160 (38%), SB+155 (39%)

                  PO+205 (33%)

 

Matt Riddle*     vs     Dan Cramer

Riddle: BU-165 (62%), SB-150 (60%)

               PO-140 (58%)

Cramer: BU+135 (43%), SB+120 (45%)

                 PO-140 (42%)

 

George Sotiropoulos^     vs     George Roop

Sotiropoulos: BU, SB

                             PO-350 (78%)

Roop: BU, SB

                    PO+350 (22%)

 

Jesse “The Ox” Lennox     vs     Danillo “Indio” Villefort

Lennox: BU+165 (38%), SB+150 (40%)

                  PO

Villefort: BU-210 (68%), SB-180 (64%)

                   PO

UFC 103: Franklin vs Belfort (09/19/09)

Posted in Fight Cards with tags , , , , , , , on August 3, 2009 by Maxwell Destree

From: American Airlines Center,  Tx

 

Rich “Ace” Franklin                     Vitor “Phenom” Belfort

Rich Franklin    vs   

Mirko “Cro Cop”     vs     Junior “Cigano” Dos Santos

Mike “Quick” Swick     vs     Martin “The Hitman” Kampmann

Josh “Ko’s” Koscheck     vs     Frank “Twinkle Toes” Trigg

Efrain “Hecho en Mexico” Escudero     vs     Cole “Magrinho” Miller

Tyson Griffin     vs     Hermes Franca

Drew “The Massacre” McFedries     vs     Tomasz “Gorilla” Drwal

UFC 100 (07/11/09) Results

Posted in Results with tags , , , , , , , , , , on July 14, 2009 by Maxwell Destree

My pick Results for UFC 100: 7/11 (64%)

My Money Picks for UFC 100: 0/1

Favorites Record (by internet odds): 7/1 (there were 3 fights I didnt catch the odds to)

 

My Picks Totals (since UFC 97): 31/45 (69%)

My Money Picks Total (since UFC 97): 9/13 (69%)

Favorites Record Since UFC 97: 29/43 (67%)

 

Brock Lesnar beat Frank Mir for the UFC Undisputed Heavyweight Title

Brock Lesnar beat Frank Mir for the UFC Undisputed Heavyweight Title

Lesnar wins by technical knockout at 01:58 in Round 2

Lesnar: BU-240 (71%), SB-215 (68%)    (07/06/09)

                 PO+130 (43%)

Mir: BU+190 (34%), SB+175 (36%)     (07/06/09)

          PO-150 (60%)

  Ok, I admit I over-estimated Mir.  I don’t think I really underestimated Lesnar though.  I knew that Lesnar has the ability to smash pretty much anyone.  But, I did think Mir was going to be able to neutralize Lesnars size and brute force with technique and MMA know-how.  I was wrong.

When Lesnar was laying on top of Mir in the first round with Mir in a half head lock smashing Mir’s face I thought, this isn’t good.  When the round ended and half of Mirs face was already smashed up, and Mir could do absolutely nothing with the huge mass of meat that is Lesnar, I knew then that Lesnar was going to finish the fight in the second round.

Lesnar proved that he is the undisputed Heavyweight champ, and that anyone that gets trapped under his insanely huge body mass is as good as dead.  I would really like to see Lesnar against the winner of Carwin or Velasques, but I can say one thing it will be a while before I go against Lesnar.

 

Georges St.Pierre beats Thiago Alves by Unanimous Decision

Georges St.Pierre beats Thiago Alves by Unanimous Decision

St.Pierre wins by unanimous decision after 5 Rounds. 

Judges scores: 45-50, 44-50, 45-50

St.Pierre: BU-300 (75%), SB-285 (74%)     (07/06/09)

                     PO-300 (75%)

Alves: BU+220 (31%), SB+225 (31%)     (07/06/09)

              PO+220 (31%)

St.Pierre is in the process of building his legacy as possible the best Welterweight champ ever.  St.Pierre has two wins over Matt Hughes who probably still in some eyes is the best Welterweight champ ever.  But, it’s now impossible to ignore the level of competition that St.Pierre has beaten, and the relative ease that he has done it with.

Alves seemed to be a very game opponent.  He’s big, made weight, and seemed to be well conditioned even in the later rounds against St.Pierre.  And yet, St.Pierre pretty much walked right through Alves.  The fight was extremely one-sided.  Pierre is simply at a level never seen before in the Welterweight division, and probably all of MMA.

I get excited at the possibility of a St.Pierre/Silva fight.  But, a lot needs to happen before that would become a reality.  Silva undoubtedly needs to beat Forrest Griffin (Silvas next opponent).  Also, St.Pierre needs to recover from a groin injury suffered during the Alves fight.  But, if the UFC can get the match made and done right, then it would probably be the best matchup in the history of MMA.  At least in the regards that the two pound for pound best fighters in MMA history would be fighting one another, for the title of best MMA fighter ever!  How cool would that be?

Lastly, I have to mention I got this one right, St.Pierre did win by unanimous decision just like I thought he would.

 

John Fitch     vs     Paulo Thiago

Fitch wins by unanimous decision after 3 Rounds

Fitch: BU-450 (82%), SB-365 (78%)     (07/06/09)

             PO-350 (78%)

Thiago: BU+325 (24%), SB+285 (26%)          (07/06/09)

                 PO+310 (24%)

 Well, Fitch took this one by purely out grappling Thiago.  Ultimately it was really impressive to see how good Fitch’s jiu-jitsu is.  Fitch handled Thiago (a specialist on the mat) with composure and confidence.  Although Fitch did not submit Thiago it was still a quality performance.  Fitch wouldn’t knock Thiago out as I though he might, but he did win as I figured he would.

 

Dan “Hendo” Henderson     vs     Michael “The Count” Bisping

Henderson wins by knockout at 03:20 in Round 2

Henderson: BU-225 (69%), SB-225 (69%)      (07/06/09)   

                        PO+165 (38%)

Bisping: BU+175 (36%), SB+185 (35%)     (07/06/09)

                 PO-185 (65%)

  I have to admit despite picking Bisping to win, I’m not really dissappointed with Henderson knocking Bisping out.  I don’t really care for Bispings personality. 

 I think that if Bisping was able to avoid the big shot he would have won the fight based on points.  I also think that my odds may still have been pretty reasonable.  How many times does Henderson catch Bisping if they fought a lot.  I think Bisping would avoid the big shot more often than getting hit with it.  It just so happens that this time he got caught with it, and I mean he took the full fist straight on the chin.

Henderson did show me one thing though, he still has plenty of power in those hands. 

 

Yoshihiro Akiyama     vs     Alan “The Talent” Belcher

Akiyama wins by split decision after 3 Rounds

Akiyama: BU-300 (75%), SB-340 (77%)     (07/06/09)

                      PO-150 (60%)

Belcher: BU+220 (31%), SB+260 (28%)     (07/06/09)

                  PO+150 (40%)

 This was a very entertaining fight, and it would actually be awarded fight of the night honors.  The fight was a back and forth battle, with Akiyama taking the split decision.  The fight statistics show however that Akiyama did out strike, and out wrestle Belcher. 

I think that Belcher definately won some fans with his performance, and despite the loss I don’t forsee the UFC cutting him.  Belcher showed that he is still improving as a fighter. 

I thought there was a possibility that  Akiyama would submit Belcher, but really I thought Akiyama would get the decision.  I also had mentioned that it could be a split decision, but I figured on a unanimous one.  I wasn’t too far off.

 

Mark “The Hammer” Coleman   vs   Stephan ” American Psycho” Bonnar

Coleman wins by unanimous decision after 3 Rounds

Coleman: BU+250 (29%), SB+250 (29%)     (07/06/09)

                     PO+560 (18%)

Bonnar: BU-350 (78%), SB-325 (76%)     (07/06/09)

                  PO-550 (85%)

 The old man did it.  Coleman definately proved me wrong.  I thought he would never win another fight in the UFC again.  I truly thought that the talent level of the UFC had passed the aging Coleman by.  I would like to think that Bonnar was out of shape, or took Coleman too lightly.  But, Bonnar didn’t appear to be out of shape at the weigh-ins, and I don’t think Bonnar is the type of guy to take anyone too lightly.

All and all it was a good win for Coleman, and once again I’m not too disappointed with getting this one wrong.  It was kind of a nice surprise to see he could still hang with the young guys.  Congrats Coleman.

 

Jon “Bones” Jones     vs     Jake “Irish” O’Brien

Jones wins by submission (guillotine) at 02:43 in Round 2

Jones: BU-450 (82%), SB-500 (83%)     (07/06/09)

              PO-410 (80%)

O’Brien: BU+325 (24%), SB+300 (25%)     (07/06/09)

                PO+325 (24%)

 Jones did what everyone thought he was going to do, win.  Jones just keeps moving up the board, its exciting to think of where this kids potential will end.  This win doesn’t surprise anyone I don’t think, but it does give Jones more experience and more confidence.  I can’t help but feel that the UFC is grooming this kid.  I would really like to see him fight on regular tv for free, get this kid some exposure.  Jones didn’t deliver the first round knockout like I predicted though.

 

Dong “Stun Gun” Hyun Kim     vs     TJ Grant

Kim wins by unanimous decision after 3 Rounds

Hyun Kim: BU, SB

                       PO-300 (75%)

Grant: BU, SB

              PO+220 (31%)

  Well, I thought Kim would be able to finish Grant off in the first round.  Instead Kim would leave with a decision victory.

 

Mac Danzig     vs     Jim Miller

Miller wins by unanimous decision after 3 Rounds

Danzig: BU+160 (38%), SB+160 (38%)     (07/06/09)

               PO+160 (38%)

Miller: BU-200 (67%), SB-200 (67%)     (07/06/09)

               PO-200 (67%)

 I did not see this fight, but I heard it was pretty good.  Danzig got bloodied up, but kept fighting hard.  I read that it was a pretty good grappling match.  I think that Miller was too strong and athletic for Danzig.  Danzig is not a bad fighter, in fact he is a very technical fighter.  I think Danzig just lacks the quickness and talent to be really successful at this level.

I hit the nail on the head with this prediction.  I predicted Miller would win by unanimous decision, and that there would be some impressive grappling.  I was right on both counts.

 

CB “The Doberman” Dollaway     vs     Tom “Filthy” Lawlor

Lawlor wins by submission (guillotine) at 0:55 in Round 1

Dolloway: BU, SB

                     PO-120 (55%)

Lawlor: BU, SB

                PO+110 (48%)

 I guess by the way it sounds, Dolloway went in for a takedown and Lawlor locked in a guillotine right away.  That was pretty much the whole fight. 

I knew that Lawlor had a good chance of winning as evidenced by my winning percentage I gave him.  Lawlor is a very good fighter, probably better than people give him credit for.  Dolloway is also a very good fighter, but he also seems to be one of those guys that will never reach his full potential.  He just can’t seem to put it all together.

I would like to see Lawlor fight again, perhaps in a main event, or co-main event on a fight night.  I think Lawlor is still getting better as a fighter, and I think he could be right around the top of the division some day.

 

Matt “The Real One” Grice     vs     Sannon Gugerty

Gugerty wins by submission (guillotine) at 02:36 in Round 1

Grice: BU, SB

              PO+160 (38%)

Gugerty: BU, SB

                 PO-180 (64%)

I predicted a second round submission win for Gugerty, but he decided to just finish it in the first round.  Assuming Grice doesn’t have any more fights on his contract, I don’t anticipate seeing any more of Grice in the UFC.  Gugerty was able to get a much needed victory, and we will see him again.

UFC 100 (7/11/09) (Predictions)

Posted in Predictions with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on July 6, 2009 by Maxwell Destree

Note: The odds listed are from www.betus.com (BU) and www.sportsbook.com (SB), and my own personal opinion of what they should be (PO)(I am just trying this out, don’t be surprised if they’re way off to start with).  Also, I will break down the line into percentages for everyone.  The percentage tells how often they would win the fight.  P.S. I know the percentages don’t always add to 100, that’s because that’s the sportsbooks take, it’s just the way they do it.

My picks will be highlighted in bold.

 

Brock Lesnar                                   Frank Mir^

Brock Lesnar 2    vs    Frank Mir 2

Lesnar: BU-240 (71%), SB-215 (68%)    (07/06/09)

                 PO+130 (43%)

Mir: BU+190 (34%), SB+175 (36%)     (07/06/09)

          PO-150 (60%)

 Ok Ladies and Gentleman the rematch everyone has been waiting for and everyone is speculating about.  There really is no way to predict this one with any level of certainty.  Lesnar is a FREAK and when in the ring reminds me of a Bull on Speed in a China shop.  However, Mir does have a win over him, although some consider it controversial.  For the physical tools that Lesnar has, Mir has the same tools for pure MMA know-how.

My pick is for Mir, I have already bet a friend that Mir is going to win, although I shouldn’t have because I could have gotten better odds from Las Vegas.  Mir was a big underdog, but the odds have been slowly creeping down and are becoming more reasonable.  I think that a bet on Mir isn’t that foolish, I think that at this point in his career he is primed for a big upset victory to re-cement his place in UFC history.

Mir has the full arsenal of MMA tools at his disposal, and that’s why I have to pick him.  Lesnar is still learning the sport, and at this level pure Freakish ability still will only get one so far.  Mir can submit Lesnar on the ground, and Mir has better more technical standup.

I will admit that Lesnar still obviously has a very real chance and ability to just bull-rush and pummel Mir into submission or unconsciousness.

Ultimately the fight will end with Mir knocking Lesnar out, yup, you read it right, no need to re-read it, Mir by Knockout.

 

Georges “Rush” St.Pierre^            Thiago “PitBull” Alves

Georges St.Pierre 2    vs     Thiago Alves 3

St.Pierre: BU-300 (75%), SB-285 (74%)     (07/06/09)

                     PO-300 (75%)

Alves: BU+220 (31%), SB+225 (31%)     (07/06/09)

              PO+220 (31%)

 St.Pierre is possibly the best MMA fighter in the world.  Alves is no joke either, but he still seems a little too raw for someone on St.Pierres level.  Alves will definitely be a contender and possibly a future champ later in life, but its just too early for him.

St.Pierre is a fighter in the prime of his life.  St.Pierre in my opinion is the most pure athlete in all of MMA and he has too much ability for anyone at this point including Alves.  I expect that Alves will give us a good fight, and may even get St.Pierre in trouble, but I expect St.Pierres experience in the Octagon will pull him through.

I think this fight will probably go all five rounds, and I expect St.Pierre to win via Unanimous Decision.  Alves won’t be able to take St.Pierre down, yet St.Pierre will probably take Alves down to score points.  I think that St.Pierre will also be able to control the standup as well.  Finally though, how can anyone bet against St.Pierre at this stage in his career?

 

John Fitch*     vs     Paulo Thiago

Fitch: BU-450 (82%), SB-365 (78%)     (07/06/09)

             PO-350 (78%)

Thiago: BU+325 (24%), SB+285 (26%)          (07/06/09)

                 PO+310 (24%)

Thiago is going to be a good fight for Fitch who has been on a role in the UFC (except for the loss to GSP).  Thiago has won his last two fights by TKO (the only two TKOs of his eleven wins).  Thiagos specialty seems to be on the mat with the submission game.  Fitch is no stranger to the mat though, he is an ex-wrestler for Purdue University, although it will be interesting to see if Thiago can get Fitch on his back.  Thiago definitely has a chance to submit Fitch, but probably won’t knock him out.  Fitch has only been knocked out once in his twenty plus fights. 

Fitch will win by decision, possibly by knockout in the second round too.  I don’t think it would be an early or late knockout though.  Fitch is just too seasoned for Thiago.

 

Dan “Hendo” Henderson     vs     Michael “The Count” Bisping^$

Henderson: BU-225 (69%), SB-225 (69%)      (07/06/09)   

                        PO+165 (38%)

Bisping: BU+175 (36%), SB+185 (35%)     (07/06/09)

                 PO-185 (65%)

 Michael Bisping is complaining about the lack of respect that hes gotten from both fans and the media lately, and quite frankly I would have to agree with him.  Henderson was a great fighter, notice that I said was.  Henderson is still a very good fighter, but I think Father Time has caught up with him and he is no longer considered great, at least not in my book.

Bisping on the other hand is at a point where he is more athletic and quicker than Henderson.  Could the best ever Michael Bisping beat the best ever Dan Henderson?  Probably not, in fact most likely not, but can the Michael Bisping of today beat the Dan Henderson of today?  I think probably. 

I saw Hendersons last fight against Rich Franklin, and I was not impressed.  Both fighters looked slow and tentative.  Also, as I said earlier, Henderson is getting old.  I know that Randy Couture is old, but he is also fighting in a division where speed isn’t as much of a factor.  For a Middleweight its a combination of speed and power.  Henderson seems to have lost his speed, but still retains his power, supposedly even though we haven’t seen it in a while.

Bisping on the other hand looks very fast at Middleweight, but could admittedly probably use some more power.  I think that Bisping will be able to stuff most of Hendersons shots and keep the fight standing where he has an advantage.

I think Bisping wins this either by a late third round knockout, or decision.  I know Henderson has never been knocked out, but after taking two and a half rounds of punches he might give way.  Also, I think Henderson some times suffers from what many wrestlers appear to suffer from, and that’s trying to strike with a striker when they should be taking the striker down.

Bisping to win and take on Anderson Silva in England for the Middleweight belt where he will get his arse kicked.

 

Yoshihiro Akiyama*     vs     Alan “The Talent” Belcher

Akiyama: BU-300 (75%), SB-340 (77%)     (07/06/09)

                      PO-150 (60%)

Belcher: BU+220 (31%), SB+260 (28%)     (07/06/09)

                  PO+150 (40%)

This is Akiyamas first fight in the UFC, and he will be facing an opponent who has had eight fights in the UFC.  Akiyama has come to the UFC from Japan with much fanfare and is obviously the favorite for this fight.  I am personally not familiar with any of Akiyamas previous opponents but he has had quite a run of ending his fights in the first round.

Belcher is 5-3 in the Octagon with wins over Jorge Santiago, Kalib Starnes and Ed Herman.  His three losses are to Jason Day, Kendall Grove and Yushin Okami, with the exception of Day, not a bad couple of guys to lose to.  Belcher is still a very real threat to Akiyama although I just don’t think Belcher will have the mat skills to ward of Akiyama for too long.

I see Akiyama winning by either a late submission or by decision, possibly split, but most likely unanimous.

 

Mark “The Hammer” Coleman   vs   Stephan ” American Psycho” Bonnar^

Coleman: BU+250 (29%), SB+250 (29%)     (07/06/09)

                     PO+560 (18%)

Bonnar: BU-350 (78%), SB-325 (76%)     (07/06/09)

                  PO-550 (85%)

 I will keep this one quick, Coleman is too old.

Bonnar by knockout in the second round.

 

Jon “Bones” Jones*     vs     Jake “Irish” O’Brien

Jones: BU-450 (82%), SB-500 (83%)     (07/06/09)

              PO-410 (80%)

O’Brien: BU+325 (24%), SB+300 (25%)     (07/06/09)

                PO+325 (24%)

 Jones is a very athletic fighter, and very unorthodox.  Jones has had two fights in the UFC both wins by unanimous decisions.  The UFC is expecting big things from Jones who is only 21 years old and full of potential.  Jones is the clear favorite to win this fight.

O’Brien is no stranger to the Octagon in his own right.  He has had mixed results, but has faced decent competition.  Unfortunately for O’Brien I think the athleticism of Jones will be too much. 

I am going out on a limb here but I really think Jones is going to get an early victory, by knockout.

 

Dong “Stun Gun” Hyun Kim*     vs     TJ Grant

Hyun Kim: BU, SB

                       PO-300 (75%)

Grant: BU, SB

              PO+220 (31%)

 Dong Hyun Kim has had more fights in the UFC against better competition, and he has done pretty good.  I know that Kim is the favorite for this fight.  Grant has had one fight in the UFC and that was a controversial split decision win over Ryo Chonan.  Personally I never thought too much of Chonan, so I don’t give Grants victory over him much credit. 

Kim by submission in the first round.

 

Mac Danzig     vs     Jim Miller*

Danzig: BU+160 (38%), SB+160 (38%)     (07/06/09)

               PO+160 (38%)

Miller: BU-200 (67%), SB-200 (67%)     (07/06/09)

               PO-200 (67%)

 Well, one thing is for sure and that’s that Danzig is in desperate need of a win.  Danzig has had five fights in the UFC with a record of 2-3.  The one thing that Danzig has going for him is that he has fought some pretty good fighters.  He has losses to Josh Neer, Clay Guida, and Kurt Pellegrino and holds wins over Mark Bocek and Tommy Speer. 

Miller has yet to fight that level of competition.  Miller is 2-1 in the Octagon with wins over David Baron and Matt Wiman.  Miller lost his last fight which was against a very tough Gray Maynard.  Miller managed to go 3 grueling rounds with Maynard but lost by unanimous decision. 

Although Danzig has more experience, I don’t think he has the mentality or physical ability to improve much in the UFC.  Miller is still somewhat unproven although a win over Matt Wiman is a good start to proving ones self.  I just feel like Danzig is on his way out of the UFC while Miller is still developing as a fighter and a potential threat in the Lightweight division.

Miller by Unanimous Decision after three rounds of some very impressive grappling.

 

CB “The Doberman” Dollaway^     vs     Tom “Filthy” Lawlor

Dolloway: BU, SB

                     PO-120 (55%)

Lawlor: BU, SB

                PO+110 (48%)

 Both fighters are veterans from the Ultimate Fighter Tv Show, so I have seen both fighters fight.  Lawlor is good, probably better than most people give him credit for, but Dollaway although arrogant is the better fighter.  Dolloway despite losing in the finale of the show has gotten better over time, and truly seems to have what it takes to be a top tier MMA fighter. 

I don’t know exactly how the fight will go down, but I expect some good ground and pound from Dolloway and probably a unanimous or maybe split decision win for the Doberman.

 

Matt “The Real One” Grice     vs     Sannon Gugerty*

Grice: BU, SB

              PO+160 (38%)

Gugerty: BU, SB

                 PO-180 (64%)

Grice has had a rough go of it in the UFC, he has a 1-2 record.  His win comes by split-decision against Jason Black while his two losses are to Matt Veach and Terry Etim.  Etim is definitely a good fighter in the UFC and no slouch to have a loss to.  However, one would have to believe that with a Lightweight division as competitive as it is that Grice can’t afford any more losses.  Unfortunately his opponent is probably in the same boat. 

Gugerty has had two fights in the UFC with one win and one loss.  He beat Dale Hartt, but lost a tough fight with Spencer Fisher that went deep into the third round.  Being able to go deep into the third round with Spencer Fisher gets more respect in my book than two first round losses and a split decision win.

I think Gugerty takes this one in the second round by submission.

UFC 102 Couture vs Nogueira (8/29/09)

Posted in Fight Cards with tags , , , , , on July 6, 2009 by Maxwell Destree

Randy “The Natural” Couture     vs     Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira

Keith “The Dean of Mean” Jardine     vs     Thiago Silva

Chris “The Crippler” Leben     vs     Jake Rosholt

Nate “The Great” Marquardt     vs     Demian Maia

Krzysztof “The Polish Experiment” Soszynski     vs     Brandon “The Truth” Vera

Gabriel “Napao” Gonzaga     vs     Chris Tuchscherer

Wilson Gouveia     vs     James “The Sandman” Irvin

Mike Russo     vs     Justin “The Insane 1” McCully

Tim “The Thrashing Machine” Hague     vs     Todd Duffee

Nick Catone     vs     Mark “The Filipino Wrecking Machine” Munoz

Matt Veach     vs      Evan Dunham

UFC 99 – The Comeback (6/13/09) (Predictions)

Posted in Uncategorized with tags , , , , , , , , on June 10, 2009 by Maxwell Destree

Note: The odds listed are from www.betus.com (BU) and www.sportsbook.com (SB), and my own personal opinion of what they should be (PO)(I am just trying this out, don’t be surprised if they’re way off to start with).  Also, I will break down the line into percentages for everyone.  The percentage tells how often they would win the fight.  P.S. I know the percentages don’t always add to 100, that’s because thats the sportsbooks take, it’s just the way they do it.

 

Rich Franklin^$                                Wanderlei Silva

Rich Franklin     vs     Wanderlei Silva 2

Franklin: BU-155 (61%), SB-145 (59%)     (06/04/09)

                     PO-225(69%)

Silva: BU+115 (47%), SB+115 (47%)     (06/04/09)

              PO+205 (33%)

I think you would have to be out of your mind not to go with Franklin on this one.  Yeah, Franklin has had some tough fights lately, and the loss to Dan Henderson didn’t help, but remember he was a UFC Champ for a long time.  Franklin is still a top level talent despite losing to Anderson Silva twice and Henderson.  Franklins conditioning can match Wanderlei Silvas, and his striking is better.

Silva on the other hand has not impressed me at all since coming into the UFC.  Not only that, Silva has suffered some very vicious knockouts throughout his career the last of which came in his last fight against Quentin Jackson.  It is very hard for a fighter to recover mentally and physically after taking a vicious knockout, and Silva has had several.  I think that because of the effects that these knockouts are bound to have, Silva has lost speed and can’t take a punch like he use to.

I would anticipate Franklin knocking Silva out, probably in the second round, Franklin is smart and will feel Silva out before dialing in his range.  I think that the odds for this fight are way too close, I think Franklin wins this fight about 7 out of 10 times, great odds for a betting man.

 

Cain Velasquez     vs     Cheick Kongo^

Velasquez: SB-200 (67%)     (06/04/09)

                         PO-110 (52%)

Kongo: SB+160 (38%)     (06/04/09)

                 PO-110 (52%)

Boy, the UFC sure doesn’t make them easy to pick.  This is a great matchup, it will help give a better look at Heavyweight contendership.  I know that Cain is touted as the UFC Heavyweight to watch, but in the shadows of the division Cheick Kongo has slowly been making a name for himself. 

Kongo has had several nice wins in the UFC, and is currently on a three fight win streak.  Both of Kongos losses in the UFC have been by way of split decision.  I initially wasn’t impressed too much with Kongo and felt that he was over-rated.  However, I can no longer look past his record and his last three fights.  Kongo has looked very crisp with his striking, he has great timing, and seems determined to be a force at this division.

Cain is no slouch either, don’t get me wrong, he can still very easily win this fight.  I just feel that Kongo’s experience is going to carry him in this fight.  I don’t know how the winner will have won, knockout or decision but I can guess it won’t be by submission.  This should be a very fun fight to watch.

 

Mike Swick^$     vs     Ben Saunders

Swick: BU-225 (69%), SB-210 (68%)     (06/04/09)

               PO-300 (75%)

Saunders: BU+175 (36%), SB+170 (37%)     (06/04/09)

                      PO+280 (28%)

I know Saunders is good, perhaps very good, but Swick is better.  Swicks only loss of note in the UFC is to a very good fighter in Yushin Okami.  Since that loss Swick has dropped a weight class, and looks even quicker and more powerful than he did before.  Swick is lightning fast and has the MMA repitour to boot.  Saunders is going to be in for a long fight, or perhaps a very quick one.

Either way, I think Swick is a very good bet to win this fight.

                    

 Marcus Davis^$     vs     Dan Hardy

Davis: BU-225 (69%), SB-210 (68%)     (06/04/09)

               PO-320 (76%)

Hardy: BU+175 (36%), SB+170 (37%)     (06/04/09)

                PO+295 (25%)

Davis is going to knock Hardy out.  No if’s, and’s, or but’s about it.  Davis has faced much better competition, and has held his own.  Also, Hardy’s bread and butter is his striking, but Davis holds the winning hand when it comes to striking.  Davis was a professional and amateur boxer, so his hands are much more refined than Hardy’s.  Laslty, Hardy has been running his mouth saying Davis is a fake Irish man, so Davis really has incentive to shove his fist directly into Hardy’s pie hole.  Davis by knockout in the first round.

 

Spencer Fisher*     vs     Caol Uno

Fisher: BU-225 (69%), SB-210 (68%)     (06/04/09)

               PO-150 (60%)

Uno: BU+175 (36%), SB+170 (37%)    (06/04/09)

           PO+130 (43%)

 Well, here’s another tough one to pick.  Uno is very good on the mat, Fisher is good on his feet and OK on the mat.  If Fisher can keep the fight standing he wins, if Uno gets Fisher down there is a very good chance he wins.  Ultimately though I think that Fisher can neutralize enought of Uno’s game to get a decision victory.

 

Terry Etim*     vs     Justin Buchholz

Etim: BU-350 (78%), SB-500 (83%)     (06/04/09)

            PO-215 (68%)

Bucholz: BU+225 (31%), SB+300 (25%)      (06/04/09)

                   PO+190 (34%)

I have not had the opportunity to see either of these fighters fight, but I know Etim is pretty good.  He has more Octagon experience than Bucholz and I think that will come into play here.  For what its worth, Bucholz has a first round loss to Matt Wiman, and Wiman has a decision loss to Sam Stout who Etim beat.  By all accords Wiman probably won the fight, but if Wiman and Etim are at about the same level (which I think they are) then Etim will simply be the better fighter.

Etim victory by way of any means necessary.

 

Dennis Siver*     vs     Dale Hartt

Siver: BU-200 (67%), SB-200 (67%)     (06/04/09)

             PO-170 (63%)

Hartt: BU+150 (40%), SB+160 (38%)     (06/04/09)

              PO+160 (38)

 Siver has more experience.  I have never seen either fighter fight, but the general consensus among the “experts” is that Siver is the better fighter.

 

Paul Taylor*     vs     Peter Sobotta

Taylor: BU-500 (83%), SB-500 (83%)     (06/04/09)

                 PO-210 (68%)

Sobotta: BU+300 (25%), SB+300 (25%)     (06/04/09)

                   PO+220 (32%)

 Paul Taylor is a fun fighter to watch, but really hasn’t shown much in the UFC.  Taylor is a good fighter for anyone to fight entering the UFC.  Taylor is definately beatable, and Sobotta has a very, very good chance of achieving the upset victory.

Sobotta is from Germany, and that’s where this event is, so he’ll be fighting in front of a home crowd so to speak.  The only reason Taylor is picked to win is because of his experience in the UFC.  Taylor wins by decision.

(Note: I haven’t picked too many upset wins for this card, but this could very easily be one of them, I just can’t bring myself to pick Sobotta, but don’t anyone be surprised if Taylor does lose this fight.)

 

Paul Kelly*     vs     Rolando Delgado

Kelly: BU-550 (85%), SB-500 (83%)    (06/04/09)

             PO

Delgado: BU+325 (24%), SB+300 (25%)     (06/04/09)

                   PO

I’m going to wait on this prediction until after the weigh ins.

 

 Denis Stojnic*     vs     Stefan Struve

Stojnic: BU-110 (52%), SB-Even     (06/04/09)

                 PO-160 (62%)

Struve: BU-130 (57%), SB-130 (57%)     (06/04/09)

                PO+130 (43%)

Struve is too tall and lenky to be a real threat in the UFC.  Sruve is listed as 6’11” the only real athletes at this height are playing in the NBA, not fighting for the UFC. 

Stojnic isn’t the best bet, but I think he can take Struve.  Despite being much shorter at 5’11” he still weighs the same.  Both fighters have one fight in the UFC and both have a loss.  Both losses are to quality opponents in Cain Velasquez and Junior Dos Antos.

To help put this fight into perspective its like asking an NBA basketball player to fight linebacker in the NFL.  I would consider the linebacker to be a much more explosive athlete than an NBA player.  Although this example isn’t perfect because they’re both fighters in the same sport.  Genetically, Stojnic is going to be more agile even though he is overweight.  Stojnic by ground and pound or knockout.

 

Mustapha Al Turk     vs     Mirko Cro Cop*

Al Turk: BU+275 (27%), SB+350 (22%)     (06/04/09)

                  PO+300 (25%)

Cro Cop: BU-450 (82%), SB-550 (85%)     (06/04/09)

                   PO-430 (81%)

Man, talk about a question mark, Mirko “Cro Cop” is a human question mark. Will he show up to fight?  Will he be dissappointment again? No one can really tell.  What I do know is that if Mirko can fight like everyone knows he can he should easily win.  But, we’ll have to see who shows up.

Also, the UFC really wants Mirko to be a mainstay in the company, perhaps that setting one up for him to knock down if you get my drift.

 

John Hathaway*     vs     Rick Story

Hathaway: SB-150 (60%)     (06/04/09)

                         PO-120 (56%)

Story: SB+120 (45%)     (06/04/09)

              PO+120 (45%)

I’ve never seen either fighter fight before, this is Story’s first UFC appearance and Hathaways second.  Hathaway is probably a safe bet though.

UFC 98 Results

Posted in Results with tags , , , , , , , , , , on May 24, 2009 by Maxwell Destree

We Have A New Champ! Hughes Survives Head-butt and Controversy and Upsets Mark UFC 98.

 

First, I would like to say to all of my readers, I actually had on OK night for predictions.  But, the prediction I blew was the Machida/Evans fight.  I really thought that Evans had the style to beat Machida.  Don’t worry though, I have no false reservations about my picks or the results, and I am ready to eat a big huge serving of CROW served up by Machida himself.

Lyoto Machida celebrates after becoming the Light Heavyweight Campion in the UFC

Lyoto Machida celebrates after becoming the Light Heavyweight Campion in the UFC

Rashad Evans     vs     Lyoto Machida

Rashad: BU+175 (36%), SB+165 (38%)  (5/13/09)

                   BU+150 (40%), SB+160 (38%)  (5/21/09)

Machida: BU-225 (69%), SB-205 (67%)  (5/13/09)

                     BU-200 (66%), SB-200 (66%)  (5/21/09)

Machida wins by knockout in the second round.

Machida was the favorite for this fight and with good reason.  Machida came out, waited patiently for a while for the Champ to engage, and then decided to formulate a little offense of his own.  Machida had a couple of very nice kicks in the first round and continued his record of never losing a round in the UFC by winning the first round.

Machida came out the second round and waited like a time bomb for the right opportunity to take Evans out.  Evans was taken down by Machida at one point but stood right back up.  Evans really only landed one nice body kick the whole fight.  About three minutes into the second round Machida put on a flurry and caught Evans with several clean blows to the jaw, but ultimately connected with a short left cross to put the Champ to sleep.

I had stated that Machida would not be able to knock Evans out, I was wrong, one serving of crow from Mr. Machida.  Oh, thank you Mr. Machida can I have some more?  I also said that Evans was going to be fast enough and athletic enough to catch Machida but, I was wrong.  Oh why Mr. Machida some more crow?  Thank you, you shouldn’t have Mr. Machida.  I also picked Evans to beat Machida by knockout, but I was wrong.  Oh, a third serving of crow? Why thank you Mr. Machida, oh, look its the biggest serving yet.

Ok, basically I expected Evans to come out and try and take Machida down at least once or twice before standing with Machida.  I thought Evans would want to keep Machida guessing as to what to defend: strikes or takedown.  Unfortunately, Evans didn’t attempt a single takedown.  I also anticipated a lot of level changing and long combinations from Evans to try and close the gap on Machida and get in close.  Evans decided that his bast chance of winning was to stay on the outside and wait for Machida to come in. 

I am not claiming to be a wiz kid when it comes to MMA or fighting, and I am certainly not any more knowledgeable than Greg Jackson (Evans trainer) when it comes to creating a gameplan, but I just felt like with the athleticism and wrestling background that Evans has, he had a real opportunity to take it to Machida.  To Machida’s credit, he has made it very difficult to figure out his style.  One can’t plot slowly in, looking for the big knockout like Thiago Silva did.  But, one can’t stay back and try and keep distance on Machida either.  Machida is too accurate of a striker and distance is Machidas advantage.

I overestimated Evans ability to close the gap on Machida, and I underestimated Machidas power and elusiveness.  I give all the credit to Machida, he fought a superb fight and won in a very convincing fashion.  I anticipate Machida holding onto this belt for some time to come.  Oh, OK, one more serving of crow for me just for good measure.

  

Matt Hughes     vs     Matt Serra

Hughes: BU-275 (73%), SB-290 (74%)  (5/13/09)

                   BU-275 (73%), SB-275 (73%)  (5/21/09)

Serra: BU+190(34%)  SB+230 (30%)  (5/13/09)

              BU+190 (34%) SB+215 (31%)  (5/21/09)

Hughes wins by unanimous decision after three rounds.

Well, I got this one right, despite near upset loss in the first round from a headbutt.  Serra and Hughes accidentally knocked heads in the very beginning of the first round, causing Hughes to basically get knocked out while standing, fortunately Serra couldn’t finish him.  Serra won the first round with pressure and strikes.

Hughes won the second and third round with superior wrestling and takedowns.  It was definitely a close fight, and the judges easily could have had a split decision.  In the end though it was a unanimous decision victory for Hughes.

 Just a quick note on Hughes.  Hughes to me looked a little slow and apprehensive on his feet.  I hope Hughes doesn’t fight anymore because I know he will fight a ranked competitor, and I think he will lose.  Hughes’ skills just aren’t well rounded enough to hang with the top of the division anymore.

Drew McFedries     vs     Xavier Foupa-Pokam

McFedries: SB+160 (38%)  (5/21/09)

Foupa-Pokam: SB-200 (66%)  (5/21/09)

McFedries wins by knockout in the first round.

Well, I kinda went back and forth with this fight, like I did for most of the fights on this card.  However, when I thought about it, it sounded like Foupa-Pokam wanted to stand with McFedries and that is never a good gameplan.  McFedries proved his power by blasting Foupa-Pokam several times before the ref stepped in to stop it.

 

Brock Larson     vs     Mike Pyle

Larson: SB-290 (74%)  (5/21/09)

Pyle:

Larson wins by submission in the first round.

Man o’ man, Pyle really brought it.  Pyle went for several very nice, and very close submission attempts of his own right away in the first round.  The two fighters had a very quick and smart grappling match on the mat before Larson was able to come away with the submission victory.

 

Dan Miller    vs     Chael Sonnen

Sonnen: SB+125 (44%)  (5/21/09)

Miller: SB-155 (61%)  (5/21/09)

Sonnen wins by unanimous decision after three rounds.

Well, I have a little more crow on my plate after this one.  I knew Sonnen was the better wrestler, but I thought Miller would be able to keep the fight standing where he is better on his feet.  Sonnen was able to take Miller down with relative ease, and proceeded to ground and pound Miller for three rounds.  I was surprised that Miller wasn’t more effective from his guard. 

I’m really not too disappointed with this pick, it was a fight to see where Miller ranks in the UFC, Sonnen was a good test and Miller just wasn’t up to the challenge. 

 

Sean Sherk     vs     Frank Edgar

Sherk: BU-275 (73%) SB-295 (74%)  (5/13/09)

               BU-300 (75%) SB-365 (78%)  (5/21/09)

Edgar: BU+190 (34%) SB+235(30%)  (5/13/09)

                BU+200 (33%) SB+285 (26%)  (5/21/09)

Edgar wins by unanimous decision after three rounds.

Edgar had the better boxing skills  for this fight.  Edgar moved around well, and had real crisp strikes.  I knew Edgar could win this fight if it stayed standing, the only problem was I thought Sherk would at least go for a couple of takedowns, and score some points on the judges scorecard.  This fight is a frustrating loss, because Sherk has the ability to win the fight consistently by simply taking Edgar down (which he would be able to do) and ground and pounding him.  However, Sherk chose to stand and lose two straight rounds before trying something else.  My fear was realized, Sherk was more concerned about winning by knockout/strikes than he was about just winning.

Nonetheless, I thought it could have been a split decision, and with the odds where they were, it really was hard not to throw some money down on Edgar.  Another fight that was tough to predict.

 

Pat Barry     vs     Tim Hague

Barry: BU-350 (77%) (5/13/09)

               BU-330 (77%) SB-500 (83%)  (5/21/09)

Hague: BU+225 (31%)  (5/13/09)

                 BU+220 (31%) SB+300 (25%)  (5/21/09)

Hague wins by submission in the first round.

Well, if anyone read my predictions, they would know that I really didn’t want to chose this one.  I just had a hard time seeing why Barry was such a favorite. Although he was very close to knocking out Hague in the beginning of the first round.  But, Hague kept his wits about him, took Barry down and submitted him.

Another lose on my record, but yet another one that I can live with.

 

Phillipe Nover     vs     Kyle Bradley

Nover: BU-400 (80%) SB-365 (78%)  (5/13/09)

                BU-330 (77%) SB-500 (83%)  (5/21/09)

Bradley: BU+250 (29%) SB+285 (26%)  (5/13/09)

                   BU+220 (31%) SB+300 (25%)  (5/21/09)

Bradley wins by referee stoppage in the first round.

I didn’t see this fight, but apparently referee Yves Lavigne had a very, very poor stoppage of the fight.  He stopped the fight but Nover was never hurt.  Which makes it worse for Lavigne is that apparently replay shows that it was indeed a very poor stoppage.

Another loss for me, but it sounds like it wasn’t a very legit fight, so once again this one doesn’t bother me. (Other than poor refereeing).

 

Krzysztof Soszynski   vs     Andre Gusmao

Soszynski: SB+125 (44%)  (5/21/09)

Gusmao: SB-155 (61%)  (5/21/09)

Soszynski wins by knockout in the first round.

Gusmao came out strong, and really looked to be the better fighter for the first part of the fight.  However, Soszynski caught Gusmao right on the chin with a real short and crisp right hand.  Once again, Gusmao is a good fighter, and better than what he has shown in his first two fights in the UFC.  Soszynski is hot right now, he has confidence, looks healhty, has a well rounded fight game, I would hate to be Soszynskis next opponent.

Back in the win column for me.

  

Dave Kaplan     vs     George Roop

Kaplan: BU+110 (48%)  (5/13/09)

                 BU+110 (48%) SB+135 (43%)  (5/21/09)

Roop: BU-150 (60%)  (5/13/09)

              BU-150 (60%) SB-165 (62%)  (5/21/09)

Roop wins by split decision after three rounds.

Well, I really thought that Roop would have had an easier time with Kaplan.  Roop still got the win, but I have to give Kaplan a lot of credit, he fought hard and showed some real heart.

Roop got me a win here, barely, but I will take it.

 

My prediction results and data for UFC 98:

 My Record: 6/11                                                

Money Picks: 3/4

Favorites Record: 4/11 (amazing, there were a lot of upsets for this one)

I picked the favorite to win 7/11

 

Running Totals Updated

My Record: 16/23  70%

Money Picks:  7/9 78%

Favorites Record (since UFC 97): 11/23  48%